Judge stays CFTC’s case against US solider over prediction market bets

A federal judge ordered that a civil case initiated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) be stayed pending the outcome of a criminal case against a US soldier who is alleged to have used nonpublic information to profit from a Polymarket event contract on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In a Monday ruling in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, District Judge Andrew Carter granted a motion filed by prosecutors in July to stay the CFTC’s civil case “pending the outcome of the criminal proceeding.”

The cases against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant, involve allegations of making more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts tied to Maduro’s removal. According to the US Justice Department, Van Dyke was involved in the operation to oust Maduro in January, leading to allegations he used nonpublic information to profit on prediction markets.

The criminal and civil cases, both filed in April, could have significant implications for lawmakers and government officials using prediction markets. The US soldier has already filed a motion to dismiss the criminal indictment on different legal theories, including that the CFTC’s enforcement of event contracts as “swaps” on prediction markets was “ambiguous.”

Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to all charges and is potentially looking at a criminal trial beginning in late 2026 or early 2027.