coindesk.com
OKX's Haider Rafique said he is increasingly pessimistic that the Clarity Act will clear Congress this year, arguing political realities rather than policy disagreements are the biggest obstacle to the landmark crypto market structure bill.
Rafique, who is the exchange’s global managing partner for Corporate Affairs and Investor Relations, said Democrats have little incentive to hand Republicans a major legislative victory ahead of this year's midterm elections, particularly given criticism surrounding President Donald Trump's ties to the crypto industry.
"I don't believe there is enough Democratic support for it to pass," Rafique told CoinDesk in an interview before the Senate announced it would not vote on the bill this month. "Why would they want to give Republicans such a significant win on a highly polarizing piece of legislation before the midterms?"
The Clarity Act is widely regarded as the crypto industry's most consequential U.S. market structure bill, with supporters arguing it would establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and encourage greater institutional participation.
Its prospects have dimmed, however. Industry leaders are now looking to September, when the Senate returns to Washington, D.C., as the next opportunity for a vote.
While acknowledging bipartisan support exists for the legislation, Rafique said party politics are likely to outweigh the industry's push for regulatory clarity.
He dismissed Democratic concerns over ethics provisions as inconsistent, arguing lawmakers should instead adopt broader restrictions on public officials participating in financial markets.
Despite his skepticism, Rafique described the Clarity Act as critical to the future of the U.S. digital asset industry. He said clear federal rules would help retain entrepreneurs, investment and intellectual property that are increasingly being built overseas.
"Without clarity, entrepreneurs will continue to stay offshore," Rafique said, pointing to companies such as Hyperliquid and Backpack, which chose jurisdictions outside the U.S. "There is only one Silicon Valley and one Wall Street. The U.S. should be creating the environment for these companies to build at home."
OKX is one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, offering spot, derivatives and Web3 services. The company resumed its U.S. expansion in 2025 after resolving a long-running case with the U.S. Department of Justice over unlicensed money-transmitting activity.
Limited upside if Clarity passes
Rafique also argued that markets have already priced in much of the potential benefit from the legislation.
He said bitcoin's recent rebound was partly driven by renewed optimism around the bill, meaning passage would likely generate only a modest short-term rally of around 3%-4%.