The Likelihood… Is Now Sub-50%
Chalom acknowledged that the ambitious July 4 timeline now looks increasingly unlikely.
“I think the likelihood of that happening is now sub-50%. I’m still optimistic that if it doesn’t happen by the August recess, it’ll happen this year.” He said.
While he remains confident about the bill’s long-term prospects, Chalom noted that regulators such as the SEC and CFTC could still move ahead with rulemaking even without Congress passing the legislation.
However, he warned that regulatory rules are easier to reverse than laws passed by Congress. This makes formal legislation far more important for long-term certainty.
Asia Won’t Wait
One of Chalom’s biggest concerns is that delays in Washington could allow other regions to move ahead.
Having visited South Korea and Hong Kong four times over the past nine months, he said regulators across Asia have been closely watching the U.S. legislative process.
“If it’s not passed, you’re going to see Asian local governments pass equivalents to try to catch up and even get ahead of the U.S.” He said.
According to Chalom, countries across Asia are preparing their own crypto frameworks. They could leapfrog the United States if Washington continues to delay regulatory clarity.
Prediction Markets Turn Bearish
Chalom’s comments come as prediction markets have become increasingly skeptical about the bill’s prospects. On Polymarket, the odds of the Crypto Clarity Act being signed into law this year have fallen to 39%. This reflects growing uncertainty over the legislation’s timeline.
While expectations for a July breakthrough have faded, Chalom suggested the regulatory momentum behind the bill remains intact. Passage before the end of 2025 is still very much on the table.
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