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A U.S. special forces soldier tied to the capture of Nicolás Maduro has been indicted after allegedly using a prediction market to bet on the Venezuelan leader’s removal and earn more than $400,000.
Alleged bets tied to classified access
Authorities say Gannon Ken Van Dyke took part in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, the operation that toppled and captured Maduro. They allege he used insider knowledge to place wagers on whether the U.S. would send forces into Venezuela and remove Maduro from power.
Van Dyke was arrested on Thursday, CBS reported, citing a law enforcement source. Moreover, federal officials say his wagers were informed by classified information he could access as a government insider.
The government says Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements that barred him from revealing any classified or sensitive information tied to the military operations he supported. Those restrictions, officials argue, made the betting conduct especially serious.
How the Polymarket activity unfolded
In December, Van Dyke opened a Polymarket account and began placing wagers on Maduro- and Venezuela-related contracts. Between December 27, 2025 and January 26 of this year, he allegedly made 13 bets totaling some $33,034.
That said, officials say the wagers covered questions such as “U.S. Forces in Venezuela . . . by January 31, 2026” and “Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026”. After collecting his winnings, he allegedly took steps to hide his link to the account.
The case sits at the intersection of national security information and fast-growing online betting tools. It also underscores how a market prediction platform can become part of a criminal inquiry when the user has privileged access.
Charges and official response
Van Dyke now faces charges including violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. Prosecutors say those counts stem from the way he used his position for personal gain.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “Widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, but federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.”
Moreover, the case adds to growing scrutiny of a broader polymarket trading scandal and the risks posed when sensitive government knowledge meets speculative betting. Authorities have not indicated that the investigation is over.
The indictment leaves Van Dyke facing serious legal exposure over the alleged use of insider access in a high-profile Venezuela-related betting scheme.