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According to Polymarket data, the probability of another US government shutdown by January 31st is rapidly increasing. On their prediction platform, the probability for this scenario has reached 76%. This situation has also caused Bitcoin to fall.
Democrats in the U.S. Senate threatened to block a spending bill for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown. Tensions escalated following a shooting in Minnesota in which a Border Patrol agent killed a civilian. The incident marked the third fatal shooting by federal agents in the state this month, amid ongoing protests against immigration policies.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, in a statement via X, said that Democrats were demanding “common sense reforms” in the DHS spending bill, but because Republicans refused to stand up to President Trump, the bill was “far from curbing abuses” in ICE applications. Schumer stated that he would therefore vote “no” on the bill, adding that as long as DHS funding was included in the package, Democrats would not vote to move the process forward.
The Senate needs to pass a spending package, including DHS funding, aimed at preventing a partial government shutdown, by midnight Friday. The bill requires 60 votes to pass. With 53 Republican seats, and with Republican Senator Rand Paul expected to vote against the bill, the Republicans need the support of at least eight Democrats.
Democrats were reportedly planning a group meeting Sunday night, and the possibility of a government shutdown was already rising before Schumer’s announcement. Following the event, many Democrats opposed DHS funding. Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto announced she would not support the current DHS budget bill and called for DHS funding to be addressed separately from the overall spending package.
*This is not investment advice.