Bernstein Analysts Point to 15 January for the Cryptocurrency Market – ‘Last Chance’

Bernstein, a Wall Street-based investment firm, stated that time is rapidly running out for the Clarity Act, which aims to create a comprehensive framework for the cryptocurrency market in the US, to become law.

According to the company’s latest analysis, growing disagreements between the banking sector and the crypto industry regarding stablecoin returns are jeopardizing the bill’s progress.

In a report shared with clients today, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani argued that while core issues of the Clarity Act, such as whether digital assets should be considered “commodities” or “securities,” and the regulatory approach to decentralized finance (DeFi), are controversial, they alone are not enough to halt the process. According to Chhugani, the real obstacle is attempts by banking representatives to restrict crypto platforms from offering returns on stablecoin balances.

As you may recall, the $GENIUS Act, signed into law by Donald Trump last year, prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying out yield. However, current regulations still allow crypto platforms and affiliates to distribute yields to users on an annualized basis, ranging from approximately 2% to 4%.

Bernstein analysts report that the banking sector views these incentives as a threat to traditional deposits. Concerns are raised that the stablecoin market, currently worth over $275 billion, could eventually reach trillions of dollars, becoming a “systemically significant” area. The crypto industry, however, argues that reopening the debate on the tough compromises reached under the $GENIUS Act is anti-competitive and contrary to free-market principles.

According to the report, both sides view this issue as an “insurmountable red line.” Failure to reach a compromise quickly increases the risk of the Clarity Act being delayed or failing altogether. Bernstein emphasized the critical nature of the political calendar, stating that the bill must make concrete progress by the second quarter of 2026 at the latest; otherwise, the midterm election process could distract from the agenda.

Finally, while Chhugani acknowledges that the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has benefited the sector, he warns that momentum could be lost if the revenue-sharing dispute over stablecoin returns persists. According to the analyst, the current period represents a “critical window of opportunity” for the Clarity Act.

*This is not investment advice.