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Lawyer and XRP enthusiast Jeremy Hogan, in a recent lengthy tweet, predicts what might come next for Ripple, Coinbase and other similar lawsuits in the year 2025.
Although Hogan hinted at a bit of uncertainty about the specifics of what might happen, he was able to draw a few deductions after listening to former SEC official John Reed Stark.
Hogan went ahead to outline a few likely scenarios: his first prediction concerns SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom Hogan says might step down before Jan. 20, 2025.
Following this move, Hogan predicts that the incoming SEC head or interim leader would issue marching orders to dispose of all nonfraud crypto cases. Hogan depicted this scenario as the litigation team is reviewing each case and recommending either settlement or dismissal and then presenting their recommendations to the commissioners, who should vote affirmatively.
Sooo..what happens to the Ripple v. SEC (and Coinbase case, etc.) next year?
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) November 8, 2024
Well, I wasn't sure about the nuts/bolts of it all so I listened to a great Space by @JohnReedStark today and the most LIKELY scenario is:
1. Gensler steps down before Jan.20
2. The new head (or interim… pic.twitter.com/GZ0EmidnNs
Hogan went on to share his thoughts on specific lawsuits such as Ripple's, saying such cases or any case with a ruling will be "settled" for the judgment amount, which in the Ripple lawsuit is $125 million.
In another positive prediction, Hogan predicts that Coinbase and other cases in litigation will be dismissed. Although this may take some time and may not occur in January, Hogan expects it will happen before the summer.
In June 2023, the SEC filed its lawsuit alleging that Coinbase is operating an unregistered securities exchange.
Timeline and expectations in Ripple lawsuit
On Oct. 2, the SEC announced its intention to appeal the court's decision that certain prior XRP distributions by Ripple were securities. It is important to note that the SEC appeal does not address whether XRP is a security in and of itself.
While the SEC's decision to challenge prior verdicts was disheartening, it was not unexpected given the agency's relentless fight against cryptocurrency.
On Oct. 24, Ripple submitted its Form C, describing the concerns it intends to bring in its cross-appeal. Given that the parties are challenging the court's judgment, Ripple deposited the $125 million set aside for remedies in an escrow account.
As Ripple noted in its Q3, 2024, XRP Markets Report, the appeal and cross-appeal briefing might last until the first half of 2025, followed by an argument before the appellate court, most likely in the fall of 2025, and a final verdict from the court.