Trader's Successful Donald Trump Bets Prompts French Regulator to Go After Polymarket

The French gambling regulator is considering banning access to the predictions market Polymarket despite the platform not specifically targeting French users.

Polymarket’s Political Predictions Ruffle Feathers

The French gambling regulator, the National Gaming Authority (NGA), is reportedly contemplating banning access to the predictions market Polymarket. An anonymous source in the NGA said the regulator can block access to Polymarket even though it does not specifically target French users.

According to a Big Whale report, the regulator took an interest in Polymarket following claims that an unknown French trader pocketed $19 million after correctly predicting Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections. Though initially shunned by traditional media, Polymarket consistently showed Trump leading Democratic candidate Kamala Harris sometimes by double-digit figures.

However, many U.S. officials, including the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, have warned that predictions markets face possible enforcement actions if they offer unregistered derivative contracts to U.S. residents. Behnam has previously revealed that the CFTC is closely monitoring offshore prediction markets, including Polymarket.

French Regulator Threatens to Block Polymarket

The French regulator, seemingly taking a cue from the CFTC, has said Polymarket’s activities amount to gambling and are illegal in France.

“Even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity and this is not legal in France,” a source within the NGA said.

As per the report, France’s gambling regulator is reportedly examining Polymarket’s operations and compliance with French gambling laws.

Meanwhile, William O’Rorke, a partner at ORWL Avocats, outlined potential enforcement actions the regulator could take against Polymarket and its affiliates.

“The National Gambling Authority can block the domain name in France and even pressure entities that give the platform access to the French market, such as media outlets that have distributed Polymarket links or gaming directories,” O’Rorke said.

However, the Big Whale report noted that users could easily circumvent a block, as Polymarket doesn’t require users to provide personal information to create an account — only a cryptocurrency wallet. Even with geo-blocking, users could easily use a virtual private network (VPN), the report added.