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A French-based gambler earned almost $79 million from betting on Donald Trump’s presidential win across nine Polymarket accounts, Chainalysis claims. Meanwhile, the French government threatens to ban the decentralized betting site.
Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis which tracks on-chain activity has identified that a single French trader controlling nine accounts on Polymarket made an estimated $78.7 million profit by betting on a Trump presidential win.
1/ It’s been widely reported that one whale, allegedly a French man named Theo, controlled 4 @Polymarket accounts and had significant positions betting on a Trump win. We estimate he profited ~$78.7M. pic.twitter.com/laW9Y4zNXj
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) November 6, 2024
Initially, crypto.news reported that the trader, known as Theo4 and Fredi9999, profited almost $22 million from betting on Trump victory by using four different accounts.
As one of Polymarket’s largest participants, Theo4’s trades attracted scrutiny, with some analysts raising concerns about potential market manipulation. However, Polymarket denied any manipulation, claiming that the trader’s bets reflected personal views rather than an attempt to manipulate markets.
In late October, Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan shot down New York Times allegations claiming the prediction platform is politically biased. Coplan described the Polygon-based betting service as a neutral alternative data source currently benefiting from election-related hype. His comments were in response to a recent article from The New York Times that accused Polymarket of partisan manipulation and labeled it as nothing more than a “crypto-powered gambling” site.
“One trader to rule them all”
However, things took a new turn when in an X thread on Nov. 6, Chainalysis disclosed five additional accounts connected to the same trader. The New York-headquartered blockchain analytics firm explained that the accounts are tied by their “funding patterns, timing of transactions, and cash out to specific exchange deposit addresses.”
Per Chainalysis’ calculations, the trader made roughly $79 million across all accounts. Earlier, Theo4 has previously dismissed political motivations. He particularly emphasized that his bets were purely financially driven as his intent was “just making money.”
Meanwhile, France’s gambling authority is reportedly set to ban Polymarket. According to local media reports, the National Gaming Authority is reviewing the platform’s operations and its compliance with French gambling laws. However, the regulator has yet to issue an official statement on the matter.