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Surprisingly, former Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Hatzius's predecessor, Bill Dudley, changed his tune and began supporting immediate lower interest rates, rather than advocating higher interest rates for a longer period of time.
Dudley expressed his change of heart by saying, “I've changed my mind… Waiting until September unnecessarily increases the risk of recession.”
This change in stance is significant, considering that just two months ago Dudley argued that a much higher neutral rate might mean the 5.3% federal interest rate was not high enough to rein in growth.
Dudley, who has long been in the “higher for longer” camp, insisted that the Federal Reserve should keep short-term interest rates at current levels or higher to keep inflation under control. But now he believes the Fed should cut interest rates, preferably at its policy-setting meeting next week.
According to Dudley, the strength of the US economy over the years suggested that the FED was not doing enough to slow things down. The government's generosity during the pandemic has left people and businesses with plenty of cash to spend. The Biden administration's major investments in infrastructure, semiconductors and green transformation have increased demand. The loosening of financial conditions, especially the rising stock market, increased the consumption propensity of wealthier households.
The Fed's efforts to cool the economy are now having a visible effect, according to the former New York Fed president. Wealthy households are still consuming, thanks to live asset prices and refinancing mortgages at historically low long-term rates. However, those who remain have generally exhausted what they could save from the government's large financial transfers and are feeling the impact of high interest rates on credit cards and car loans. Housing construction has stalled as high borrowing costs undermine the economics of building new apartment complexes.
*This is not investment advice.