decrypt.co
Also nervously awaiting the ruling: scores of degens who have gambled hundreds of thousands of dollars on the length of Bankman-Fried’s sentence.
On crypto gambling site Polymarket, users have already collectively bet some $657,000—and counting—on the outcome. Betting options include ranges like less than 5 years, 5-to-10 years, 10-to-20 years, 20-to-30 years, and so on—up to 50 years or more.
So what does the point spread have to say about Bankman-Fried’s fate? Overwhelmingly—if the bookies are to be trusted—the former billionaire’s outlook looks bleak.
The sentencing ranges currently showing highest probability of paying out are 20-to-30 years, 30-to-40 years, and 40-to-50 years; those options are trading at 26%, 27%, and 27% likelihood of paying out, respectively.
The odds that U.S. federal judge Lewis Kaplan heeds the pleas of Bankman-Fried’s attorneys and hands the convicted felon a gentler six-and-a-half year prison sentence are in contrast incredibly low, according to online gamblers. Betting activity has placed the odds that Bankman-Fried gets less than five years of prison time at 1%; a bet he gets a 5-to-10 year stint in the can looks only marginally more optimistic, at 4% odds.
Federal prosecutors recommended earlier this month that Bankman-Fried face 40-to-50 years in prison; degens appear to like that number. Odds that Judge Kaplan tacks harsher than prosecutors and hands down a sentence in excess of 50 years are understandably lower, at 8%.
Though odds thus appear low that FTX’s disgraced founder will get an extremely lenient or harsh sentence, that’s where most of the money’s been bet: on wagers that are fairly likely to not come true, but still offer meager profit margins.
Over $200,000 has been bet, for instance, that Bankman-Fried will not receive a sentence of 5-to-10 years, or not receive a sentence of over 50 years. The former bet would yield a profit margin of only 2.5%; the latter, 7.5%. Not much, but apparently easy money in the minds of those who’ve made such wagers.
Contrast that with a bet—not so insane to fathom—that Bankman-Fried will get a sentence between 10 and 20 years come Thursday. Putting $1,000 on the proposition would gain a gambler some $7,285 if it paid out.
Edited by Andrew Hayward