coindesk.com
Those following markets have likely heard the standard line by now. It says rising government bond yields across the developed world are a headwind for bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Now the foreign exchange market is telling us that it's time to abandon that read.
The logic behind the original take is straightforward. When safe-haven bonds pay 4-5%, holding something that pays nothing, such as bitcoin, gold, whatever, starts to look less appealing by comparison. Capital drifts toward yield, as per the theory, and for years, the same logic guided currency markets too. Higher yields pulled in foreign capital chasing that return, and the currency strengthened as a result.
However, FX doesn't seem to be playing along anymore. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed 58 basis points this year, touching 4.81% this week, its highest since October 2023. Over the same period, the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has risen just 0.9%, to 99.22.
Maybe other countries just outpaced the U.S. on yields. But that’s not necessarily the case, not uniformly. EU heavyweight Germany's 10-year is up 45 basis points this year, less than the U.S. move. Japan's is up a striking 90 basis points, yet the yen recently slid to four-decade lows rather than strengthening as the old playbook would predict.
In short, higher yields are no longer the bullish read for FX. If anything, markets seem to be reading them as a warning sign, fiscal strain rather than fiscal strength.
And if that's really what's going on, it flips the usual bitcoin argument on its head. In a world where rising yields signal trouble, investors may start reaching for the things governments can't simply print more of or debase. Hard assets like bitcoin and gold fit that bill.
Analysts have argued that the incoming financial repression, using low inflation-adjusted interest rates and currency debasement to work down the debt pile, is a bullish tailwind for BTC and gold.
As for today, the renewed weakness in the Dollar Index is offering positive cues to bitcoin, which traded near $77,700 as of this writing, up 0.8% since midnight UTC. Smaller tokens such as ARB and LIT have gained 20% and 12%, respectively, in 24 hours.