4 Things That May Move Crypto Markets This Week as Fed Rate Hike Odds Increase

Crypto markets have ticked up this Monday morning as investors brace for a volatile week ahead, with all eyes on the US central bank. Meanwhile, Iran said it will halt its attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday.

The US paused its bombing campaign on Friday following 13 nights of intensifying airstrikes. The development has caused a dip in oil prices and a jump in US stock futures and crypto markets.

Economic Events July 27 to 31

July’s Consumer Confidence data is due on Tuesday, which reflects how consumers are spending. This is followed by the week’s big event on Wednesday when the Fed announces its rate decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference, setting policy direction.

The meeting comes amid growing uncertainty about tech sector valuations, AI infrastructure spending, and economic growth trajectory amid a backdrop of inflationary pressures.

The market “feels very frothy,” Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Man Group, told Reuters. “Investors are, to a certain extent, walking on eggshells, and they’re more likely to react negatively to any signs of imperfection.”

Odds of rates remaining the same have fallen to 63.7% on the CME Fed watch tool, which now predicts a 36.3% chance of an increase.

July’s PCE inflation data is due on Thursday, followed by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and Inflation Expectations data on Friday.

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Key Events This Week:

1. Markets React to US/Iran Pausing Strikes – Today, 6 PM ET

2. July Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday

3. July Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday

4. Microsoft, $MSFT, Meta, $META, Report Earnings – Wednesday

5. July PCE Inflation data – Thursday…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2026

Meanwhile, more than 15% of S&P 500 companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, are reporting earnings this week.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have moved higher over the weekend, with total capitalization ticking up to $2.3 trillion on Monday morning in Asia.

Bitcoin moved up 1% on the day to tap $65,500 in early trading before a minor retreat. The asset is still facing heavy resistance above $66,000, which has kept it range-bound for almost two months.

Ethereum has made a bigger 3.5% move to hit a seven-week high of $1,960, but it also faces resistance at this level and hasn’t been over $2,000 since June 2. Only a handful of altcoins were moving, and these included Zcash, Chainlink, and Uniswap, while Monero had lost 4%.