Coinbase stock sinks 4% as CLARITY Act odds collapse to 37%

Coinbase shares have fallen 4% to about $169 on July 22 as the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds dropped 15 percentage points from the previous day’s peak.

Polymarket data places the bill’s chance of passing before the end of 2026 at 37%, down from 52% on July 21, after disagreements emerged over how proposed ethics restrictions should be enforced.

President Donald Trump had agreed to include ethics provisions in the market structure bill, helping lift the probability on Polymarket and sending COIN stock 9% higher on July 21. The compromise, however, failed to secure enough support after some Democratic senators objected to assigning enforcement responsibility to the U.S. Department of Justice instead of state attorneys general.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks described the White House proposal as an “unserious offer” and stated that senators would continue working on language capable of holding all parties accountable. Her comments weakened expectations that the latest concession would end the dispute holding up the legislation.

Republican Senator Thom Tillis also indicated that the text was not ready for a procedural vote. According to Tillis, lawmakers still need to make changes before senators can support advancing the bill, leaving its timetable uncertain despite the renewed negotiations.

Falling bill odds have interrupted COIN’s rebound

Monday’s policy optimism helped Coinbase shares close above $170 for the first time since June 2, but the rally lost momentum as the disagreement in Washington returned. TradingView data shows COIN opened at $172.25 on July 22, reached $174.96 and fell as low as $168.32 before trading near $169.11.

On the daily chart, the latest advance also pushed COIN above a descending trendline drawn from its May high. Tuesday’s decline brought the stock back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $170.89, making that level the first resistance buyers need to recover.

Momentum readings still show some support beneath the pullback. The chart’s moving average convergence divergence line has moved above its signal line, while the histogram has turned positive, a combination that TradingView’s indicator readings associate with improving bullish momentum.

COIN’s relative strength index stands at 53.68, above its moving average of 49.70 and well below overbought territory. According to the chart, this neutral-to-positive reading gives buyers room to extend the recovery if the stock retakes $170.89 and attracts follow-through demand.

Above that barrier, the Fibonacci retracement identifies $180.70 as the next resistance, followed by $190.51 and $202.65. A close above the $180.70 midpoint would strengthen the recovery case and place the psychological $200 area close to the 23.6% retracement.

Failure to reclaim $170.89 would leave COIN exposed to the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $156.92. The chart places the full retracement at $139.13, although the July price structure also shows several recent lows around $150 that could offer support before the stock reaches the lower target.

Bitcoin’s recovery to around $66,000 may provide an additional catalyst because Coinbase earns part of its revenue from crypto trading. Raymond James, however, expects subdued market activity to weigh on the company’s performance and has initiated coverage with a $158 price target, roughly 6.5% below COIN’s quoted level near $169.

Oppenheimer previously lowered its Coinbase target to $209, also citing soft spot-trading volumes during the crypto downturn. Despite its cautious stock forecast, Raymond James estimated that Coinbase’s expanding product range, including prediction markets, could eventually produce more than $100 million in annualized revenue.

New products and an SEC settlement support the business case

Coinbase added another service on July 22 by opening $SUI staking to eligible customers. According to the exchange, users can begin with one $SUI and earn estimated annual rewards ranging from 1.4% to 3.3% while keeping their tokens in their Coinbase accounts, although availability varies by location.

Alongside the product rollout, Coinbase secured a $150,000 settlement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over missing communications from former Chair Gary Gensler. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal disclosed the agreement on July 22, ending the exchange’s Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the regulator.

Under the settlement described by Grewal, the SEC will pay Coinbase and revise its record-retention rules after nearly 11 months of Gensler’s text messages were lost. Grewal wrote that the agency blamed a process that “automatically wiped” certain data, including communications Coinbase had requested while investigating how senior officials approached crypto policy and enforcement.

Coinbase had also sued the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 2024 for records it believed could reveal efforts by U.S. regulators to limit crypto companies’ access to banking services. The SEC agreement resolves only the related records case, but it adds a legal win as investors assess the exchange’s regulatory position.

Attention now turns to Coinbase’s second-quarter results, scheduled for July 30. Analysts expect earnings of $0.19 per share, compared with a loss of $1.49 per share in the first quarter, making trading revenue, new services and management’s outlook key tests for COIN after its policy-driven rally.