coindesk.com
SpaceX (SPCX) is set to officially join Wall Street's tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index on July 7 after raising $75 billion in the largest iPO of all time in mid-June.
The stock immediately surged to as high as $225 in the days after the June 12 IPO,only to deflate to $162 last week. Now the big question is what happens after it is included in the Nasdaq index.
The answer is not necessarily bullish when viewed through the lens of history.
Past data suggests that index inclusion, often viewed as a positive milestone, is not a reliable bullish signal, particularly after a stock has already experienced a significant rally.
That's because, in many cases, investor optimism is already elevated and peaked, passive fund buying has largely been anticipated, and expectations are priced in.
The two most notable recent additions to the Nasdaq 100 highlight this pattern.
Palantir (PLTR), the software giant, joined the index on Dec. 23, 2024, but the stock peaked around the time of its inclusion and declined roughly 25% in the weeks that followed.
A similar story played out with Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded company holding bitcoin. Although it officially entered the Nasdaq 100 on Dec. 23, 2024, the stock had already reached its cycle high a month earlier, peaking near $543 in November, while bitcoin was trading around $100,000. Today, the stock trades around $100, roughly an 80% correction from its peak.
SpaceX's IPO came at the peak of the AI infrastructure trade frenzy, when semiconductor and memory stocks were surging amid unprecedented demand for AI compute and concerns over chip and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages.
So if history is a guide, SpaceX stock may not have smooth sailing after the Nasdaq inclusion.