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Arthur Hayes, the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and a leading figure in the industry, made striking predictions that will profoundly shake global markets during his appearance on the Bankless podcast.
Hayes argued that the Artificial Intelligence (AI) craze sweeping the technology world has turned into a massive financial bubble, and that after this bubble bursts, the only escape route for global capital will be cryptocurrencies.
Arthur Hayes noted that global capital is currently flocking to the artificial intelligence sector, which it views as “the fastest-running horse.” However, arguing that this is leading to a very serious misallocation of capital, Hayes made the following warning, referring to the railroad craze of the 19th century:
“People are always overly optimistic at the beginning of any new technology. Right now, inflated balance sheets, cyclical revenue agreements, and flawed amortization calculations are being made for AI investments. Companies are assigning a lifespan of 5-6 years to microchips that become obsolete every two years. This mathematical reality will hit the market like a slap in the face no later than 2027-2028. A collapse in the AI-driven credit market will be far greater than the 2008 mortgage crisis.”
According to Hayes, when the AI sector collapses, the first reflex of financial authorities and central banks will be to print trillions of dollars in fiat money to save the system. However, the renowned analyst points out a critical dilemma at this point:
“No matter how much money the FED prints, it can’t change the fact that a chip improves every two years; in other words, the central bank can’t ‘invoke Moore’s Law.’ Investors won’t want to invest this newly printed money in AI projects that don’t cover their costs. That’s when this massive liquidity will flow directly into cryptocurrencies. The collapse of AI and the subsequent hyper-inflationary money printing will propel Bitcoin to $1 million.”
Hayes, noting that investors have recently complained about the stagnation in cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum), said the main reason for this is artificial intelligence. Stating that all the global money being printed is going into AI stocks (Nvidia, OpenAI, etc.), Hayes said, “Why would an investor buy Bitcoin when they can find an AI ancillary industry stock that can multiply their money 20 times in 6 months? Due to opportunity cost, AI has sucked the oxygen out of crypto. For crypto to return to its old ‘fun and explosive’ days, the AI craze needs to end.”
Hayes, who until recently held long positions in some altcoins such as Near (NEAR) and Hyperliquid (HYPE), announced that he took profits and exited these assets after realizing that the risks were starting to outweigh the potential returns.
Hayes, who currently describes his position as “permanently Bitcoin long,” stated that he holds his cash in US Treasury Bonds (T-Bills) for interest income.
Hayes also compared Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), stating that Ethereum’s current offerings present a much cheaper and more attractive setup compared to Bitcoin, and that he would prefer to invest any new capital given to him in Ethereum instead of Bitcoin.
Hayes, proudly recalling that he invented the “Perpetual Swap” mechanism that revolutionized the crypto world, surprised the audience by admitting that he only trades in the “Spot” (unleveraged) market.
“Cryptocurrencies are already incredibly volatile assets on their own. You don’t need leverage to make good returns. Unless you’re a trader who lives and breathes 24/7, stay away from leverage. I’m a spot trader.”
Hayes stated that artificial intelligence poses not only economic but also serious political risks, noting that the American public is angry because AI data centers cause water pollution, increase electricity consumption, and threaten jobs. Hayes predicted that both Democrats and Republicans are funded by tech giants, but a politician with “eloquence” will emerge to capitalize on this public anger, turning the 2028 US Presidential Election into a referendum on artificial intelligence.
*This is not investment advice.