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Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known for his close ties to the Fed and often referred to as a “Fed spokesperson,” stated that the May inflation data was not strong enough to change the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, adding that policy discussions have expanded to include the possibility of another interest rate hike.
Timiraos stated that the May CPI data did not provide a clear answer regarding the path the Fed will follow. He added that the moderate outlook in core inflation was a positive development, but higher headline inflation and strong demand conditions overshadowed this improvement. He noted that what would justify a pause in Fed interest rate hikes is not a single month’s data, but a series of data indicating a sustained cooling of inflation.
According to Timiraos, the nature of the factors fueling inflation has also changed. Price pressures no longer stem solely from tariffs; rising energy prices, capital expenditures triggered by AI investments, and the wealth effect created by increasing asset prices make it easier for companies to pass on their increased costs to consumers. This triple pressure is considered to be more difficult for the Fed to ignore compared to past tariff-driven inflation shocks.
Timiraos, drawing attention to the first monetary policy meeting under the new Fed Chairman Warsh next week, stated that the May inflation data maintained the Fed’s recent hawkish stance. While noting that the data didn’t immediately force the Fed into a more aggressive position, Timiraos said that policy discussions have now broadened from “keeping interest rates high for longer” to “reconsidering interest rate hikes.”
Timiraos, recalling that markets had priced in expectations of interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year, added that the Fed’s patience threshold has risen significantly and that the single-month moderate inflation data will not be enough to change policy direction.
*This is not investment advice.