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Matt Hogan: Institutional adoption is ending the four-year cycle, Bitcoin halving is losing significance, and covered call strategies are reshaping investment | Empire

cryptobriefing.com 2 h

Key takeaways

The traditional four-year cycle in crypto is becoming obsolete due to the influence of institutional adoption.
Institutional investments in crypto have reached a staggering $15 trillion, indicating a major shift in market dynamics.
The fear and greed index suggests a stable market outlook despite current flat conditions.
Liquidity in the crypto market decreases on weekends, adding to market fragility.
Covered call strategies are a popular method for Bitcoin holders to generate income without selling their assets.
The Bitcoin halving event is losing its significance in influencing market cycles.
Interest rates have a notable impact on crypto market performance, with rising rates typically leading to poor performance.
Institutional adoption is significantly increasing, reshaping the crypto landscape.
Regulatory changes are shifting from being obstacles to becoming supportive forces for the crypto market.
MicroStrategy is not in a position where it will be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings.
Institutional investors are expected to fill the purchasing gap left by MicroStrategy.
Large financial institutions could dramatically increase Bitcoin ETF inflows, potentially doubling the current pace.

Guest intro

The guest featured on Empire is a notable figure in the crypto industry, providing insights into the evolving landscape. With a deep understanding of market dynamics, the guest discusses the impact of institutional adoption, regulatory changes, and investment strategies on the crypto market. Their perspective is valuable for understanding the future trajectory of digital assets and the role of financial institutions in this space. The episode covers a range of topics, including market cycles, investment strategies, and the influence of regulatory developments.

The end of the four-year cycle in crypto

The traditional four-year cycle in crypto is no longer relevant due to institutional adoption.

— Matt Hogan
Institutional investments have reached approximately $15 trillion, reshaping the market landscape.
I think the four year cycle is dead by which I mean I think 2026 will be an up year.

— GuestName
The forces that caused the four-year cycle are now very weak, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
I do not think it will pre in 2026 I think the forces that caused the four year cycle are now very weak.

— GuestName
The four-year cycle has been a primary driver of volatility in the current year.
I think the four year cycle has played a dominant role in this year being so volatile.

— GuestName
Institutional adoption narrative is overwhelming traditional cycles, with major banks greenlighting crypto exposure.
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo have all green lit crypto exposure.

— GuestName

Weekend liquidity challenges in crypto

Liquidity in the crypto market decreases on weekends, making it more fragile.
Liquidity does naturally dry up and that just makes the market a little bit more fragile.

— GuestName
Understanding trading hours and liquidity is crucial for managing market volatility.
The decrease in liquidity contributes to increased market fragility on weekends.
This phenomenon highlights the importance of liquidity management in crypto trading.
Weekend trading dynamics can lead to unexpected price movements due to low liquidity.
Traders should be aware of these patterns to better navigate weekend market conditions.
Liquidity challenges on weekends underscore the need for strategic trading approaches.

Covered call strategies for Bitcoin holders

Covered call strategies allow Bitcoin holders to generate income without selling their assets.
What they do is they come to folks like bitwise… can you write covered calls against this which means can you sell options or futures contracts that give away the upside or some portion of the upside in exchange for income.

— GuestName
More than 50% of perceived Bitcoin selling is happening through covered call strategies.
My view is that more than 50% of the quote unquote selling is happening through these covered call strategies.

— GuestName
This strategy is becoming a fast-growing business in the cryptocurrency space.
This was not really a business for bitwise two years ago it’s an extremely fast growing bit with business for bitwise right now.

— GuestName
Covered calls offer a way to manage Bitcoin investments while generating income.
The strategy reflects a shift in investment approaches among Bitcoin holders.
Understanding options trading is key to leveraging covered call strategies effectively.

The diminishing role of Bitcoin halving

The Bitcoin halving is becoming less significant in influencing market cycles.
The having cycle is just not that important right… it’s a fraction of you know a quarter of as important as it was eight years ago.

— GuestName
Historical patterns suggest a reduced impact of halving events on price dynamics.
This change reflects evolving market conditions and increased institutional influence.
The diminishing role of halving highlights the need for new market analysis frameworks.
Investors should adjust their strategies to account for this shift in market dynamics.
The reduced significance of halving events may lead to more stable market conditions.
Understanding the changing impact of halving is crucial for future investment decisions.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy

MicroStrategy is not in a position where it will be forced to sell its Bitcoin.
The idea that it’s going to have to sell $60,000,000,000 of bitcoin there’s just no world in which that’s true unless bitcoin falls 90%.

— Matt
MicroStrategy’s debt is manageable, with no immediate need to sell Bitcoin.
Microstrategy has to pay 800,000,000 in interest… it has plenty of cash for the next eighteen months… none of it comes due until 2027.

— Matt
The market misunderstands MicroStrategy’s role as both a buyer and seller of Bitcoin.
The market has a tough time realizing that microstrategy is no longer a relevant buyer of btc but they’re also not a fore seller.

— Matt
Institutional investors are likely to fill the purchasing gap left by MicroStrategy.
I don’t think dats are gonna purchase bitcoin or much bitcoin next year but they’re definitely not going to sell and what that means is you have to think about who is the marginal buyer that’s filling strategy shoes my view is it’s those institutional investors…

— Matt

Institutional adoption and its impact

Institutional adoption of crypto is significantly increasing, reshaping the market.
Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo have all green lit crypto exposure… you have Harvard tripling its crypto exposure.

— GuestName
Large financial institutions could significantly increase Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Take bank of america they have $3,500,000,000,000 in assets 1% is 35,000,000,000 4% is like a 140,000,000,000 that that’s more than the total flows into bitcoin etf so far so you talk about one firm that it alone could more than double the pace of bitcoin etf inflows.

— GuestName
Regulatory changes are shifting from severe headwinds to strong tailwinds for the crypto market.
You have a once in a generation regulatory change from severe regulatory headwinds to strong regulatory tailwinds.

— GuestName
Institutional investors are expected to fill the purchasing gap left by MicroStrategy.
I don’t think dats are gonna purchase bitcoin or much bitcoin next year but they’re definitely not going to sell and what that means is you have to think about who is the marginal buyer that’s filling strategy shoes my view is it’s those institutional investors…

— Matt

The evolving regulatory landscape

Regulatory changes are shifting from severe headwinds to strong tailwinds for the crypto market.
You have a once in a generation regulatory change from severe regulatory headwinds to strong regulatory tailwinds.

— GuestName
Regulations now allow tokens to have economic value linked to underlying protocols.
One of the reasons icos have been so bad in the past is because tokens couldn’t have a link to economic value… but that’s been released as well now you can have tokens that have an economic link to the underlying protocol.

— GuestName
The regulatory challenges surrounding privacy tokens like Zcash hinder institutional adoption.
It’s just really hard to do it in a fund structure right now in any geography not just the us but in any geography… you run into questions with the regulator around whether this is a traditional privacy token.

— GuestName
Regulation will enable more direct economic ties between tokens and their underlying activities.
We are entering this world where regulation allows much more direct economic ties between these tokens and their actual underlying activity.

— GuestName

The future of ICOs and tokenization

ICOs will return and be significantly larger than in 2017.
I think they’re gonna come back and be orders of magnitude bigger than what we saw in 2017.

— GuestName
The new ICO process is more democratic and efficient compared to traditional IPOs.
One is just like 10 x better than the other it is simply a better process.

— GuestName
Regulations now allow tokens to have economic value linked to underlying protocols.
One of the reasons icos have been so bad in the past is because tokens couldn’t have a link to economic value… but that’s been released as well now you can have tokens that have an economic link to the underlying protocol.

— GuestName
The market is likely to be disappointed with stablecoins and tokenization in 2026.
I also think on these other narratives like stablecoins and tokenization the market will probably get disappointed with that at some point in 2026.

— Matt

The role of financial advisors in crypto

Client retention is more important than growth for financial advisors in crypto.
Clients retention is actually more important than growth and they’re mostly not optimizing for maximum portfolio returns they’re building businesses.

— Guest
The reduction in Bitcoin’s volatility is crucial for financial advisors to manage client relationships.
That’s one of the reasons the reduction in volatility in bitcoin is so important and we’ve really seen that volatility come down because it reduces this firing risk.

— Guest
Financial advisors are slow to adopt Bitcoin due to the need for extensive client education and risk aversion.
The average bitwise client i think invests after eight meetings with us just and some of those meetings are quarterly right so if you wonder like why is harvard just now investing in bitcoin it’s probably because they started studying it when the bitcoin etfs launched in january and they did eight quarterly meetings on it.

— GuestName
Financial advisors are not as focused on detailed portfolio construction as commonly believed.
The average advisor spends five hours a week on portfolio construction so five hours a week that’s three hundred minutes let’s say they have a 1% allocation to crypto they can spend three minutes thinking about crypto this week.

— Guest

The future of crypto narratives

In the next two years, the narrative of crypto will expand from three to ten distinct themes.
I think in the next two years it’s going to have 10 and I think privacy is one of those.

— GuestName
The theme of 2025 may involve exciting developments alongside potential overvaluations.
I think the theme of ’25 is that there’s probably more exciting things happening in the industry than ever before and also maybe some things have gotten over their skis in terms of valuations.

— Matt
The long-term outlook for 2026 is extraordinarily strong despite short-term disappointments.
But the long term outlook for 2026 is just extraordinarily strong strong regulatory strong institutional demand new use cases bubbling up.

— Matt
The year 2025 may be seen as a pivotal moment in overcoming significant market barriers.
I think we might look back at 2025 at some point and say, you know what a $100,000 was like a big behavioral cliff we had to get over.

— Matt

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