Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates in March? The Latest Odds Are In

On Polymarket, one of the leading cryptocurrency market prediction platforms, investors have begun pricing in their expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision in March.

Data from the platform indicates that the market is largely focused on the scenario where interest rates will remain unchanged.

According to data from Polymarket, the probability that the Fed will not change its policy interest rate at the March meeting is overwhelmingly high at 83 percent. A 25 basis point rate cut is priced at 16 percent. A more aggressive move of 50 basis points or more is seen as highly unlikely at only 1 percent, with the market considering this possibility quite low. Similarly, the probability of a 25 basis point or greater rate increase is priced at around 1 percent.

The FOMC had last decided in January to keep the policy rate stable between 3.50% and 3.75%. This marked the first pause since July 2025, following three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the final three meetings of 2025. The decision was made with a 10-2 vote, with FED members Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller voting for an additional 25 basis point cut, citing easing in the labor market.

Following the interest rate cut in December, Jerome Powell stated that monetary policy had entered a “wide neutral range.” The Fed is known to strive to balance inflation and employment in line with its dual mandate from Congress. Low interest rates support employment but can increase the risk of inflation; high interest rates, on the other hand, reduce price pressures but can weaken the labor market.

*This is not investment advice.