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Expectations are beginning to become clearer regarding who US President Donald Trump will choose to replace current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.
According to pricing in the forecast markets, Trump’s preferred candidate for Fed chairman is expected to be announced in January.
The probabilities generated on prediction platforms show which names the markets favor. Accordingly, the top two names are:
- Kevin Hassett: 39%
- Kevin Warsh: 31%
Other candidates and market possibilities are as follows:
- Christopher Waller: 14%
- Rick Rieder: 4%
- Scott Bessent: 2%
- Michelle Bowman: 2%
- Judy Shelton: 2%
Donald Trump has recently begun to harden his rhetoric against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and recently claimed that the possibility of firing Powell is still on the table.
On the other hand, forecast markets are pricing in not only the presidential appointment but also expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision in January. Accordingly:
- Probability of a 50 basis point or greater interest rate cut: 1%
- Probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut: 11%
- No change in interest rates: 88%
*This is not investment advice.