The patch is now allowing players to exchange five Covert (red-tier) items for a knife or gloves from the same collection. In essence, Valve just enabled players to turn $100 skins into potential $100,000 knives, triggering an immediate flood of new high-tier items. According to CS Float, there are around 20 million Covert skins in existence, and if all were used in crafting, the number of knives and gloves could jump from 5.5 million to over 11 million, effectively doubling supply and gutting prices.
Some items have already collapsed massively: knives that sold for $1,300 just two days ago are now valued at around $200. The same is happening with premium-tier knives, with costs over $100,000.
Crypto and skins go toe to toe
But unlike decentralized assets such as Bitcoin, Valve is a centralized authority with full control over its economy. It can, at any point, inflate, restrict or destroy value within the CS2 ecosystem. And it does not really hurt them: in fact, it is likely part of a broader transition away from the loot box model (which faces regulatory scrutiny) toward a more transparent in-game shop system.
Trading volumes remain stable, though: the money has not vanished; it is just flowing from knives into other tradable skins. The value collapsed, but liquidity did not. In other words, the market did not die — it simply mutated under the guidance of Valve.