forbes.com
Intercontinental Exchange, also referred to as ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, one of the fastest-growing crypto-powered prediction platforms, where users trade on real-world outcomes.
The deal, which values Polymarket at roughly $8 billion, marks a significant step in bringing crypto-driven markets closer to Wall Street’s core infrastructure. Polymarket’s agreement sets the company apart from Kalshi, a regulated exchange that offers similar event-based contracts through traditional financial channels, and is widely considered the company's biggest competitor.
Exchange Diversifies Beyond Traditional Trading With $2B In Polymarket
In a joint press release, ICE stated that the investment is part of a broader initiative to move beyond traditional trading and tap into new forms of market insight.
By partnering with Polymarket, ICE will distribute event-driven data that tracks public sentiment across politics, sports, the economy, and culture, giving users a new way to gauge what’s likely to happen next.
ICE shares initially rose more than 4% in premarket trading following the announcement, but later pared gains as the broader market cooled.
Jeffrey Sprecher, ICE’s founder, chair, and CEO, said the partnership represents “a blending of institutional scale and innovation.” He described Polymarket as “a forward-thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the decentralized finance space,” adding that “there are opportunities across markets which ICE together with Polymarket can uniquely serve.”
Polymarket’s Coplan Sees ICE Deal As Catalyst For Mainstream Prediction Markets
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket allows users to buy and sell shares tied to the outcomes of future events. The structure uses smart contracts to match trades and settle results automatically. Traders can wager on everything from the U.S. presidential election to Taylor Swift album statistics, with prices reflecting real-time probabilities derived from user sentiment.
In a statement, Coplan called the deal “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream.” He added that combining Polymarket’s consumer focus with ICE’s credibility and scale would “deliver world-class products for the modern investor.”
The partnership comes as prediction markets move from a crypto side hustle into the mainstream, attracting growing interest from major investors.
Polymarket Clears Regulatory Hurdles, Wins Big
Polymarket’s path to mainstream legitimacy hasn’t been without regulatory hurdles.
In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined the platform $1.4 million for operating an unregistered exchange offering event-based binary options, ordering it to wind down noncompliant markets and restrict U.S. access while pursuing compliance.
The CFTC’s order noted that Polymarket had hosted more than 900 prediction markets since its 2020 launch, covering topics from cryptocurrency prices to elections. It emphasized that all derivatives platforms must operate within federal law.
After cooperating with regulators and acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, Polymarket received regulatory approval in September 2025 to relaunch in the United States. The approval, detailed in a CFTC no-action letter, effectively cleared the way for ICE’s investment and provided Polymarket with a compliant framework to expand its U.S. presence under federal oversight.
The platform also attracted attention from 1789 Capital, a venture fund backed by Donald Trump Jr., which made an undisclosed investment earlier this year. Meanwhile, previous funding rounds have included backing from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, which helped establish Polymarket as the largest active prediction platform globally.
The Shift Brewing Within Prediction Markets
David Phelps, cofounder of JokeRace, a “conviction” marketplace founded in 2022, stated in an interview that Polymarket’s $8 billion valuation is “massive validation” not only for crypto but for the concept of community-driven finance.
Phelps argues that prediction markets tap into the same participatory energy that fueled the rise of memecoins, giving fans and communities real stakes in the outcomes they care about, whether in sports, politics, or culture. What began as a niche corner of crypto speculation is rapidly becoming a mechanism for translating collective belief into economic value.
Phelps points to the rise of “conviction markets,” platforms like JokeRace that allow users to vote and earn on subjective outcomes, as a sign that the prediction market model could expand beyond finance. These systems apply market incentives to community decisions, from startup competitions to entertainment formats, rewarding participation and engagement.
Prediction and conviction markets illustrate a broader shift toward monetizing collective input, where economic value is tied not only to financial forecasts but also to how people express and register their preferences across digital communities.
Integrating The Future Of Finance And Traditional Finance
ICE’s investment marks another step in bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. In a joint statement, ICE and Polymarket announced their plans to explore tokenization projects, utilizing blockchain to convert real-world assets into digital ones, thereby making trading faster and more efficient.
Polymarket’s event data could also enhance ICE’s existing market analytics, providing traders with new ways to interpret public sentiment. Prediction markets focused on elections, inflation, or Federal Reserve decisions could become alternative indicators alongside traditional futures data.
Wall Street And Prediction Markets: An Unlikely Match
The timing of the investment aligns with a broader institutional embrace of crypto-related platforms following a year of regulatory stabilization in the United States. Major exchanges and clearinghouses have increasingly sought partnerships that allow them to experiment with blockchain applications while maintaining compliance.
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and its rival Kalshi, have seen trading volumes surge, particularly around political and sports events. Kalshi recently launched sports-related contracts, a move that could blur the lines between financial trading and betting markets.
ICE’s involvement could help elevate the sector’s credibility among regulators and institutional investors.
The Future of Prediction Markets and Institutional Finance
ICE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket highlights the growing intersection between traditional finance and blockchain-based markets. The deal signals increased institutional interest in prediction platforms that convert public sentiment into measurable data and financial instruments.
For ICE, the partnership extends its reach into emerging digital markets while maintaining its reputation for regulated infrastructure. Through the deal, Polymarket receives validation from an established player in global finance.
As regulatory clarity improves and institutional partnerships deepen, prediction markets are likely to play a larger role in how traders and analysts interpret real-world events, marking a gradual yet notable integration of decentralized technologies into the fabric of mainstream finance.