Bearish expectations for leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum are beginning to fade. At this point, according to the latest options market data, fears of a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly weakened. Options market data suggests a recovery in call/put curves.
Analysts say that the FED's critical interest rate decision, which will be announced on September 17, is the reason for the decrease in expectations of a decline.
However, according to analysts, the pace of the rise in $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins will largely depend on the size of the Fed's expected interest rate cut.
According to CME data, investors are pricing in over a 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, while a massive 50 basis point move is also possible.
Speaking to Coindesk, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini said a surprise 50 basis point rate cut could trigger a major rally.
A surprise 50 basis point rate cut would be a huge +gamma BUY signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ($SOL).
Apart from these, gold will also go crazy.”
At this point, Magadini said Deribit $SOL options are already showing a strong uptrend, with calls trading at a 4-5 volatility premium over puts.
Stating that Bitcoin will rise in any case, Magadini stated that if the FED makes a 25 basis point cut, a calm rise for $BTC is likely to continue.
Magadini added that it could take up to a week for $ETH to retest its all-time highs and see it above $5,000.
*This is not investment advice.