After the FED left interest rates unchanged, FED Chairman Jerome Powell made critical statements at a live press conference.
Here are the most important excerpts from what Powell said:
- The economy is in solid shape.
- Inflation continued to run slightly above targets.
- The current policy stance places us in a favorable position.
- Unusual fluctuations in net exports make the calculation of GDP more complicated.
- Inflation has declined but is still above targets.
- It is not yet clear how market sentiment will affect spending.
- Concerns over trade policy have dampened market sentiment.
- The unemployment rate remains within a narrow range and at low levels.
- Labor market conditions remain strong.
- Many indicators show the economy is near maximum employment.
- The overall personal consumer expenditures index is expected to increase by 2.3% and the core index by 2.6% in May.
- Inflation expectations have risen recently, and this is mainly due to customs duties.
- Most long-term inflation indicators are in line with the target.
- There is still uncertainty about changes in trade policy and fiscal policy.
- The labor market appears balanced and not a source of inflationary pressure.
- The impact of customs duties will depend on their level. Raising customs duties this year could weigh on economic activity and push up inflation.
- Avoiding persistent inflation ultimately depends on keeping long-term inflation expectations stable.
- The impact of customs duties on inflation may be longer lasting.
- There may be some tension between dual mission objectives.
- The current conditions are favorable and we can make the necessary adjustments once we have more information.
- The Fed will work hard to prevent one-time inflation from turning into a deep-rooted situation.
- There is uncertainty in the FOMC policymakers' forecasts, and that uncertainty is extraordinarily high.
- Commodity prices have increased slightly recently and this trend is expected to continue during the summer months.
- It will take some time for the customs duty measures to be reflected to consumers.
- We have started to see some impacts of the tariffs and expect more impacts in the future.
- We cannot assume that inflation will rise and then fall as predicted.
- As we learn more, we believe it would be appropriate to maintain current interest rates.
- When focusing on forecasts for the Fed's policy path, we should focus on the short term; long-term forecasts are more difficult.
- The Fed's forecast has shifted to expect slower economic growth and higher inflation levels.
- Uncertainty peaked in April and has now subsided.
- The economy appears to be growing at 1.5% to 2%.
- No one has great confidence in the interest rate trend forecast and cannot provide a plausible justification for any interest rate trend in the forecast.
- We may reach a point where it would be appropriate to lower interest rates.
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