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The long-awaited idea of a major economic stimulus from China has been refuted, according to Shehzad Qazi, Chief Operating Officer of China Beige Book.
Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box, Qazi shared his views on China's economic trajectory, the effects of former US President Donald Trump's tariff threats and Beijing's cautious fiscal approach, as outlined in the firm's November report.
The China Beige Book report shows year-over-year growth in revenue and profits for factories, particularly those that benefited from a preemptive surge in export orders ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. “Export orders have risen to levels not seen since COVID as companies fear tariffs and bring forward their purchases,” Qazi said. But the increase reflects strategic adjustments rather than sustained growth.
Despite the rise in certain economic indicators, Qazi dismissed speculation about significant government stimulus. “The idea of a big Chinese stimulus has been proven completely wrong,” he said, explaining that Beijing appeared to be saving its financial tools for future economic stability rather than launching large-scale intervention now.
The report also examined the complex US-China trade dynamics under the Trump administration. While Trump’s tariff threats have created uncertainty, they have also encouraged a surge in Chinese factories. “They are probably pulling back on their firepower to stabilize the economy next year as the tariff threats become more tangible,” Qazi said of Beijing’s response to the new US administration.
Qazi also addressed the narrative that China prefers Trump over Biden. Arguing that the Chinese leadership values the predictability of stable policies, Qazi suggested that they may find Biden’s administration easier to manage than Trump’s high-risk, transactional approach.
*This is not investment advice.