Markets Bet Big on a 25bps Fed Rate Cut—Low Odds for a Bigger Reduction

On Sept. 2, 2024, or roughly 16 days before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, an overwhelming majority of the market seems to be predicting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Sept. 18. The U.S. federal funds rate is currently at 5.25%-5.50%, which is the highest level in 23 years. The central bank raised interest rates 11 times over approximately a year and a half. As of 12 p.m. EDT on Monday, the CME Fedwatch tool gives a 25bps cut a 69% chance while the tool predicts the odds of a 50bps cut is around 31%. The blockchain-powered predictions market Polymarket shows the chances of a 25bps reduction is 76% while a 50bps drop holds odds of around 21%. 4% of Polymaket bettors are wagering on no change at the FOMC meeting. None of the markets are factoring in a 75bps cut despite politicians like Elizabeth Warren insisting it is necessary.