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Mohamed El-Erian, who contributes his articles to Bloomberg Opinion, expressed his concerns about the current state of the US economy. In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, El-Erian stated that the US economy is slowing down faster than the Fed predicted.
El-Erian particularly emphasized the importance of looking at the totality of data that he believes show concrete signs of economic slowdown and loss of momentum. He argued that it was necessary to talk about reducing interest rates as early as next month.
“If you look at the data as a whole, the economy is slowing, and it is slowing faster than most economists expected and certainly faster than the Fed expected,” El-Erian said. He also noted that the economy has little buffer left as most of the buffers in terms of personal savings and debt capacity have been exhausted.
El-Erian suggested that a forward-looking Fed would definitely keep the possibility of a rate cut in July on the table. However, he expressed concerns about the gap between what he thinks the Fed should do and what it is likely to do.
“If I were them, I would seriously look at July as a live meeting. I don't think this is the case. “In fact, I think this is a question mark in the market.”
El-Erian concluded by saying that the FED is extremely data dependent, which leads to delays in making the necessary changes. “It takes a lot of historical data to get them to change,” he said.
*This is not investment advice.