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FED officials Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin, Neel Kashkari and Loretta J. Mester simultaneously shared their views on the current state of the US economy at recent events.
Thomas Barkin expressed optimism that keeping interest rates 'somewhat restrictive' could return inflation to target. However, he noted that data for early 2024 is less encouraging, raising questions about whether the economic outlook has changed. Arguing that the FED should not rush to cut interest rates, Barkin argued that a tight FED policy would eventually slow down the economy even further. However, he does not foresee painful job losses in a less fragile economy.
Barkin stated that even if all FED officials look at the same data, it is easy to reach different conclusions. Barkin believes that by keeping interest rates somewhat constrained, inflation could reach 2% and that higher interest rates would eventually slow the economy even further. Goolsbee sees no reason why 2% inflation cannot be achieved and believes this target is beneficial.
Austan Goolsbee pointed out that the last two months' inflation data represent an increase that cannot be dismissed as just noise. He expressed concern that if the Fed remains restrictive for too long, employment could begin to deteriorate. He said he wants to be more convinced that the United States is on the path to 2% inflation.
Loretta J. Mester stated that the economy and monetary policy are “in a good place.” He expects growth this year to be slightly above trend and predicts the Fed will be in a position to cut interest rates later this year. However, according to Mester, he needs more evidence that inflation is falling and wants a few more months of data to assess inflation.
Neel Kashkari asked why interest rates would be reduced if the economy remains strong. Kashkari also talked about Bitcoin and claimed that there is still no valid use case for BTC.
*This is not investment advice.