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Ethereum Price Analysis - ETH Surge Could Gain Momentum With “ETH Merge” Fundamental Drivers

Ethereum

coincodex.com 01 April 2022 13:39, UTC
  
Reading time: ~4 m

Key highlights:

  • Ethereum is now up a total of 11.5% over the past month as it currently sits just beneath $3,300
  • The cryptocurrency broke out above a long-term descending trend line toward mid-March and managed to set a new 2-month high after the breakout
  • Ethereum recently found resistance at the 200-day EMA level around $3,500 and has since pulled back slightly
Ethereum price $3,270
Key ETH resistance levels $3,400, $3,485, $3,500, $3,567, $3,772
Key ETH support levels $3,230, $3,200, $3,087, $3,000, $2,965

*Price at the time of publication

Ethereum might be down by a tiny 3.5% today, but the cryptocurrency is still up by a robust 11.5% over the past trading month. The coin has been in a consistent downtrend since the November peak at $4,800 as it trended lower beneath a descending trend line that spanned four months.

ETH reached as low as $2,200 during January but managed to produce solid support at $2,400, which has held firm during 2022. 

Toward the middle of March, ETH would go on to break the four-month-old trendline as it started to surge higher. It would go on to break above the February highs at $3,300 and continued until resistance was met at the 200-day EMA level at around $3,485. 

It seems that some fundamental factors are lining up to help the recently established momentum. For example, Ethereum recently launched the Ethereum “Merge” on the Kiln Testnet on March 15th, and investors are starting to really get excited about the real shift to Proof-of-Stake on the mainnet. 

Over the past few weeks, Google searches for the term “Ethereum Merge” have skyrocketed. Interestingly, most of these searches come from Canada, with Australia coming in second, followed by the United States.

Despite volatility in $ETH, mean coin age of $ETH continues to grow steadily, indicating an accumulation trend.

Data by @santimentfeed pic.twitter.com/5PJLeLdHHw

— web3analysis.eth (@web3analysis) March 23, 2022

ETH continues to remain ranked in the second position as it currently holds a market cap value of around $346 billion.

Furthermore, data from Santiment shows that the mean Coin Age of ETH is growing steadily - a strong indication for continued accumulation. It shows the average age of all tokens on the blockchain weighted by the purchase price, and it gives a good indicator of long-term holding.

Additional fundamental bullish factors include the major surge in outflows from exchanges. In fact, on March 23rd, ETH experienced one of the largest days of outflows from exchanges. A total of 150,000 ETH was removed from exchanges as holders decided to take back self-custody as they had no intention of selling.

Another major outflow.

Over 151k $ETH was withdrawn from exchanges yesterday.

ETH reserves on centralized exchanges have been decreasing rapidly in 2022, adding up to over 1.08m.https://t.co/Zw1wG6gSem https://t.co/z7HzH8nvWK pic.twitter.com/GlZRrQFfUM

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) March 23, 2022

However, there are also some concerning fundamental factors to take notice of. Specifically, the number of active addresses on the network is not increasing at a rapid pace like other fundamental factors. However, there usually would be some sort of lag time for the retail crowd to catch on to increase the number of active addresses.

Ethereum still remains the second-largest cryptocurrency as it currently holds a $395 billion market cap value.

Let us continue to take a look at the markets and see where they might be heading.

Ethereum Price Analysis

What has been going on?

Taking a look at the daily chart above, we can clearly see how ETH has been up by a total of 11.5% over the past month. The cryptocurrency had been trading beneath ad ascending trend line since the start of December. 

As the new year started, ETH collapsed beneath the support at around $3,500 and continued to tank and spiked as low as $2,200. Luckily, the buyers managed to establish strong support at $2,400 toward the end of January, which prevented a deeper unwinding.

After a brief rebound in early February, ETH was once again stalled by the descending trend line. After being turned away, ETH trended lower back into the $2,500 support at the start of March.

Eventually, Ethereum would go on to break out from the descending trend line toward the middle of March as it started to recover over the past fortnight. On Tuesday, ETH surged as high as $3,485, where it found resistance at the 200-day EMA level.

It has since retraced slightly from this resistance but is attempting to defend the support at $3,230 (.236 Fib Retracement).

Ethereum price short-term prediction: Bullish

The breakout above the falling trend line and the creation of the 2-month high price has allowed ETH to turn bullish in the short term. A clean break above the 200-day EMA would give rise to a more sustainable bullish run. ETH would need to drop beneath $3,000 (100-day EMA) to turn neutral again and would have to break below the $2,400 January support before being confirmed as bearish.

If the buyers manage to rebound from $3,200 support, the first resistance lies at $3,400. This is followed by $3,485 (200-day EMA). Above the 200-day EMA, additional resistance lies at $3,567 (bearish .5 Fib Retracement), $3,600, $3,772 (1.272 Fib Extension), and $3,895 (bearish .618 Fib Retracement).

Where is the support toward the downside?

On the other side, the first level of support lies at $3,230 (.236 Fib Retracement). This is followed by $3,200, $3,087 (.382 Fib Retracement), $3,000 (100-day EMA), and $2,965 (.5 Fib Retracement).

Keep up to date with the latest ETH price predictions here.


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