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Ethereum’s largest whale wallets holding over 1000 $ETH trimmed off 1.7M coins in the last three months.
According to Santiment, this whale cohort’s overall holdings dropped from 58.64M $ETH to 56.91M $ETH between May and August. This translated to a 2.9% fall. Notably, the mega whale holdings across exchanges and staking contracts also slipped from 7.07M $ETH to 6.54M $ETH.
Interestingly, the wallet category holding 1 to 10 $ETH surged to over 4.5% of the circulating supply over the same period. This suggested that retail was actively accumulating during the Q2 drawdown.
Will staking and ETF demand push $ETH above $3K?
Here, it’s worth noting that staked $ETH jumped from 39M coins to a record 42.3M coins, or a 35% staking ratio. In other words, demand from staking and retail players was steady despite the headwinds in Q2.
The staking demand has been crucial in easing the sell-off driven by the U.S Spot $ETH ETF in Q2. That said, since July, the Spot $ETH ETF complex has become a net buyer.
This week alone, the products have hauled in record inflows of over 34K $ETH. The last time such ETF demand was seen was last October, just before the flash crash.
Collectively, this has sent $ETH’s price soaring by 26% this week to $2.5K. Effectively, it has reversed all Q2 losses after dipping to $1.5K in June. Reclaiming $2.5K might just set the pace for the next leg of the recovery.
In fact, sophisticated players across the Options market have been positioning themselves for a similar scenario.
In the last 24 hours, the top traded volume was calls (bullish bets) eyeing $2500 for the end-of-August expiry. For the middle and the end of September Option expiries, bullish bets were concentrated at $2900 and $3000.
Perhaps the most notable positioning was at $2000, which had the highest put volume (bearish bets). This meant that institutional players expected $2000 to be the new $ETH floor price with a potential upside move towards $2.5K or $3K by late August or September.
However, there is only a 12.5% chance of $ETH hitting $3K by next month. If the bets are validated, that would mark a 2x move (100% rally) from the June low of $1.5K.
Final Summary
- Large whale wallets with over 1000 $ETH have trimmed their exposure by 2.9% since May.
- Institutional players have been betting that $ETH’s recovery could 2x to $3K by September.