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Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, founded by Tom Lee, shared his latest analysis of Ethereum.
According to the analysis, while downside risk persists in the short term, there is strong potential for a recovery over the next 12 months.
According to Farrell’s assessment, the average cost of Ethereum per investor is $2,241. The current price of $1,934 indicates that investors are, on average, at a loss of 22%.
Looking at historical comparisons, according to the analyst, the average maximum loss for investors reached 39% in 2022, while in 2025 this rate dropped to 21%.
Applying this historical data to the current average cost, the analyst predicts that the Ethereum price could potentially fall to levels as low as $1,367 or $1,770.
On the other hand, an analysis based on the percentage losses since 2017 reveals that the current average loss is historically at the upper end, at a high level of approximately 9%. This indicates that strong recoveries have occurred in past cycles following similar conditions.
According to the model, Ethereum has a potential return of 81% in the next 12 months. This, according to analysts, indicates that the price may be approaching its bottom.
Tom Lee also shared the analysis on social media, stating that such studies are particularly important for evaluating investor fund flows and position allocation during periods near bottom levels.
According to Farrell’s report, while the risk of volatility remains in the short term, Ethereum’s risk/reward ratio shows a positive outlook in the long term.
*This is not investment advice.