Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Drops Below $3k as $177M Outflows & Metals Rally Pull Capital Away

Ethereum price today trades near $2,922 after breaking below the psychological $3,000 level for the first time since mid January. The drop follows heavy spot outflows and continued rotation into precious metals, with gold up 18 percent and silver up 52 percent year to date. $ETH now sits nearly 40 percent below its October highs while traditional safe havens extend to record levels.

Metals Rally Creates Capital Vortex

The macro environment remains hostile to risk assets. Gold trades above $5,267 after gaining 1.52 percent on the session, while silver pushed through $112 with a 5.94 percent move. The strength in metals has created what analysts describe as a capital vortex, pulling attention and flows away from crypto and other growth themes.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee acknowledged the dynamic on Wednesday, noting that investors should stick with structurally strong ideas despite the fear of missing out on metals. BitMine echoed that view, calling Ethereum the future of finance while warning that the gold and silver rally risks pulling capital from longer term opportunities.

That rotation is visible in the flows. While metals attract fresh buying, Ethereum continues to see distribution across both spot and ETF channels.

Spot Outflows Hit $177 Million As Sellers Accelerate

Coinglass data shows $177.38 million in net outflows on January 29, marking one of the heaviest distribution days since early January. The move confirms that holders are sending $ETH to exchanges rather than accumulating at current levels.

The outflow pattern has persisted through much of the month. When spot flows remain negative during a breakdown, it signals conviction from sellers rather than temporary repositioning. Buyers have not stepped in to absorb the supply, leaving price vulnerable to further downside.

Breakdown Below EMAs Shifts Structure Bearish

On the daily chart, Ethereum trades below all four major exponential moving averages. The 20 day EMA sits at $3,035, the 50 day at $3,092, the 100 day at $3,225, and the 200 day at $3,298. That stacked resistance creates a ceiling that sellers have defended since mid January.

The November to January consolidation range between $2,800 and $3,500 has now broken to the downside. Price briefly tagged $3,500 in early January before reversing sharply, and the failure to hold above $3,000 confirms that sellers remain in control.

RSI sits at 42.36, reflecting weakening momentum but not yet oversold conditions. The indicator has room to fall further before reaching levels that typically attract dip buyers.

Key levels to watch include immediate resistance at $3,035 where the 20 day EMA sits, major resistance between $3,092 and $3,298 where the remaining EMAs cluster, support at $2,800 which marks the November low, and deeper demand near $2,500 if the current structure fails.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Go Up?

The trend remains bearish while price trades below the EMA cluster and outflows persist.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $3,035 with improving flows would signal that buyers are defending the $3,000 zone. That move would target $3,200 and potentially the 200 day EMA at $3,298 if momentum builds.
• Bearish case: Losing $2,800 would confirm a clean breakdown from the multi month range and expose the $2,500 demand zone. A close below that level turns the correction into a broader trend reversal.