cryptopotato.com
Ethereum is currently attempting to stabilize after the recent sell-off that pushed prices below key levels. While the bullish trend structure hasn’t been fully broken on higher timeframes, both price action and on-chain metrics are showing mixed signals that traders should closely monitor.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart, $ETH has lost the midline of its ascending channel, breaking below the dotted trendline that had supported the price since August. The asset is now testing the $4,000 key level, which aligns closely with the lower boundary of the channel and the 100-day moving average located around the $3,800 level.
The RSI has also dipped near the oversold region but has rebounded slightly and is now hovering around 40, hinting at a possible local bottom if buyers step in with volume. However, if the asset breaks below the $4,000 level, a deeper drop toward the $3.5K range could be expected, which would officially put the market in a downtrend situation.
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour chart, $ETH shows signs of a short-term rebound after reaching the purple demand zone around $3,850. The price bounced quite sharply from this zone and is now consolidating just below $4K. This move forms a potential short-term bottom, especially since RSI has exited oversold territory and is now trending up.
That said, the structure remains bearish as long as $ETH stays below $4,200 level. If buyers can reclaim that level, momentum could shift back in favor of a bullish move. Otherwise, a drop toward the $3,500 area would be very probable in the coming weeks.
Onchain Analysis
Exchange Supply Ratio
On the on-chain data front, Ethereum’s Exchange Supply Ratio continues to trend downward, now sitting at its lowest point in years, near 0.13. This shows that a declining portion of the total $ETH supply is held on centralized exchanges, suggesting a strong long-term accumulation trend. Historically, this has been a bullish signal, as it means fewer tokens are readily available for selling.
However, this accumulation trend contrasts with the recent price action. While fewer $ETH are sitting on exchanges, the price still dropped sharply, possibly due to short-term leverage wipeouts or broader market sentiment. In any case, this metric supports the idea that long-term holders remain confident, and unless we see a sudden reversal in exchange inflows, the macro bullish structure stays intact.
