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Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Hong Kong begins its trading day, $ETH is changing hands above $4600, down 3% on-day.
As $ETH is up nearly 16% in the last week, and 45% in the last month, this probably isn't a concern for most traders. After all, the $ETH/$BTC ratio has broken above its 365-day moving average, a signal that has historically marked extended periods of $ETH outperformance, and spot ETF flows are reinforcing the move.
However, the same data shows early warning signs of near-term cooling, as CryptoQuant argued in a recent report.
Daily $ETH inflows to exchanges have surpassed Bitcoin’s, suggesting some holders are positioning to take profits. $ETH’s MVRV ratio against $BTC has risen from 0.4 in May to 0.8, approaching historical overvaluation territory. CryptoQuant warns that in past cycles, such levels have preceded pauses or pullbacks in $ETH’s relative strength.
Trading desks echo this view.
In a recent note, France-based FlowDesk reports that while there were $1 billion in single-day $ETH ETF inflows on Monday, with broad client buying versus $BTC and SOL, there were also increased call overwriting in $ETH options at the $7K–$8K strikes for December — a sign some are capping upside expectations.
QCP framed $ETH’s rally within a macro backdrop of softer headline CPI in its daily Asia Color telegram update, with strong expectations for a September Fed cut, and geopolitical easing, but flags upcoming Jackson Hole remarks and remaining CPI/NFP prints as potential sentiment pivots.
Market maker Enflux added in comments to CoinDesk that a hotter-than-expected PPI print reminded traders that inflation risks remain uneven, and that $ETH’s outsized performance could invite consolidation.
While the structural drivers remain intact, ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals, the market is entering a phase where stretched positioning and macro event risk could test $ETH’s momentum. As CryptoQuant’s data shows, the rally is strong, but so are the early signs of profit-taking.
Market Movers
$BTC: Bitcoin fell over 3% from record highs after hotter U.S. inflation dampened rate cut hopes and the Treasury signaled it will not expand Bitcoin purchases for its strategic reserve.
$ETH: $ETH is down 3.3% as sell pressure increases, as traders take profit after a record rally.
Gold: Gold fell 0.62% to $3,336.6 as hotter U.S. inflation and strong jobs data boosted the dollar and yields, trimming expectations for a large September Fed rate cut.
Nikkei 225: The Nikkei 225 opened higher as Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.0% in Q2, beating forecasts on strong exports and capital spending, though analysts warn U.S. tariffs could slow growth in the coming months.
S&P 500: U.S. stocks stalled Thursday as a hotter-than-expected PPI dampened hopes for a large September rate cut. Goldman Sachs warns its models show elevated odds of an S&P 500 drop, citing low volatility and growing tariff risks.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- U.S. Blacklists Crypto Network Behind Ruble-Backed Stablecoin and Shuttered Exchange Garantex (CoinDesk)
- Strategy Pushed ‘Deceptive’ Comparison to Apple and NVIDIA, Wall Street Veteran Says (Decrypt)
- Crypto Casino CEO Charged After Allegedly Gambling Away Investors' Millions (Decrypt)