u.today
Ethereum has just made history. It printed an incredible $59.21 billion in 24-hour derivatives, surpassing Bitcoin's $56.33 billion for the first time in a long time. This is not a small anomaly traders can just ignore, as it portends a potentially profound change in the market's focus. $ETH has been progressively recovering in terms of price from a decline that began in mid-June.
Ethereum is consolidating above key moving averages on the daily chart. The 50, 100 and 200-day MAs are stacked below price action, providing layered support. Before $ETH becomes overbought, there is still plenty of room, even though the RSI has remained in the neutral-to-bullish zone (most recently printing at 57). Prior breakout attempts have failed, and the price is now moving into the $2,600-$2,700 range.
However, the situation is different this time around: open interest has increased by +7.63% in a day, indicating the entry of new leverage into the market, and liquidity is increasing. One important point: the Altcoin Season Index is at its lowest point ever — 27. Altcoins typically do better in the weeks that follow when this index bottoms out.
In essence, the market is still in Bitcoin Season, but this early volume dominance by $ETH may portend a rally led by altcoins. In such a scenario, Ethereum is expected to lead the subsequent upward leg, possibly breaking through the $2,800 resistance and aiming for the psychological $3,000 mark.
Despite the fact that it is too soon to call for a sustained altcoin season, the combination of rising open interest, a clear change in volume leadership and historically low altcoin sentiment suggests that Ethereum may gain traction in the future. But traders need to maintain realism.
Because breakouts have dwindled below $2,800 on multiple occasions, a return to the $2,400-$2,500 range is possible if this level is not turned into support. In summary, Ethereum has taken center stage. Volume sustainability and Bitcoin's ability — or lack thereof — to regain its dominance will determine whether this is a temporary speculative frenzy or the beginning of a structural trend reversal.