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Ethereum struggles near $1,600 as whales offload 143K $ETH and derivatives inflows spike. Will $ETH crash below $1,400?
With Bitcoin stagnating near $84k, Ethereum fails to trigger a trendline breakout rally. $ETH is currently trading at $1,581, following the formation of a daily Doji candle.
As Ethereum continues to underperform, whales have begun offloading this week, and the network has recorded a new low. Can Ethereum manage to hold the $1,400 support level amidst these conditions?
Ethereum Stuck at a Crossroads: Will Bears Take Control?
Ethereum fails to bounce back within the falling channel pattern in the daily chart. Facing opposition from a newly formed resistance trendline within the channel, the $ETH price fails to float above $1,600.
The higher price rejection in the recent daily candle with long wicks warns of a potential drop ahead. However, technical indicators suggest an optimistic chance.
The daily RSI line shows a sideways movement, hovering just above the oversold boundary after a slight uptick. Additionally, the MACD and signal lines have given a positive crossover, albeit still within negative territory.
These technical signals indicate the possibility of a new bullish wave within the ongoing decline.
Based on Fibonacci levels, a breakout rally could first target the 23.60% Fibonacci level near $2,000. If bulls manage to break above the upper boundary, the 38.20% level near $2,400 becomes the next likely price target.
Conversely, Ethereum shows strong support around $1,400. A daily close below this level could trigger a potential drop toward $1,000.
Ethereum Offloading Season Begins?
Over the past week, Ethereum experienced a minor surge followed by stagnation, prompting whales to exit. According to a recent tweet by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum whales have offloaded 143,000 $ETH, valued at over $226 million.
This significant offloading has reduced the balance of wallets holding 100–1,000 $ETH from 9.4325 million to 9.2894 million. One notable case stands out.
Whales have offloaded 143,000 #Ethereum $ETH over the past week! pic.twitter.com/n8cmwyUpER
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 17, 2025
One standout case: a long-dormant whale returned to the market after two years and deposited 1,161.77 $ETH (worth $1.84 million) into Kraken.
The entity realized a profit of $ 480 K. Initially, the whale withdrew 943 $ETH (then worth $1.11 million) from Binance and later swapped 253.73K USDC for 146.59 stETH for staking.
By staking Ethereum, the whale earned an additional 72 $ETH.
Lowest Ethereum Transaction Costs in Five Years
Amid falling $ETH prices, the network has hit a five-year low in transaction fees. According to Santiment, Ethereum’s average network fee has dropped below $0.17 for the first time since May 2020. Currently, the average transaction costs just $0.168.
Declining fees suggest weakening demand and reduced user activity, both potential precursors to a lower $ETH market valuation.
🚨💸 BREAKING: Ethereum fees are at a 5-year low, with transactions currently costing just $0.168. This is the cheapest daily cost of making $ETH transfers since May 2, 2020. We briefly break this down in our latest insight. 👇https://t.co/fg5CfRgsHn pic.twitter.com/QlLwyzdm1F
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 16, 2025
Inflow Spike in Derivatives Market Warns Major Crash Ahead
As Ethereum struggles at a crossroads with the shaken confidence of whales, the derivatives market records a massive inflow. Historically, major inflow spikes in Ethereum derivatives have resulted in major crashes.
On March 26, an inflow of nearly 65K $ETH led to a 13% drop over four days. A similar spike last week resulted in a nearly 20% decline.
On April 16, the largest spike yet — over 77K $ETH — triggered fears of a deeper correction.
As Ethereum struggles to hold bullish ground, the increased inflow spike could lead to a leverage-driven downfall to $1,000.
Based on the In/Out of Money Indicator from IntotheBlock, the support zone between $1,533 and $1,581 is the final defense line. This demand zone holds 4.82 million $ETH in 2.44 million addresses. If the price drops below this range, the next support lies between $1,390 and $1,437.
Conversely, the key resistance remains the supply zone between $1,585.78 and $1,633.53, which holds 2.89 million $ETH across 3.62 million addresses.
A successful breakout could see $ETH rise toward the $1,700 level.