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- Ethereum ETFs boosted the crypto ETF landscape after recording a net inflow of $155 million last week.
- ICO-era Ethereum wallet transfers an additional 5K $ETH to OKX, extending his potential sale to $154 million.
- Ethereum could rally by 20% but faces key trendline hurdle amid retest of crucial resistance level.
Ethereum ($ETH) is up 1% on Monday and is looking set for a 20% rally following buying momentum from traditional investors across $ETH ETFs. However, it faces potential bearish pressure from a likely dump by an old whale and resistance around a key trendline.
Daily digest market movers: Ethereum ETFs, whale dump, buy signal in on-chain metrics
Ethereum ETFs globally saw a net inflow of $155 million last week, the highest among all digital assets, based on CoinShares' data. The $ETH ETF inflows indicate that traditional investors capitalized on the market correction last week to scoop up $ETH at lower prices.
Notably, BlackRock's iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) is on the way to hit $1 billion in cumulative net inflows after crossing $900 million last week.
With outflows from Grayscale's ETHE slowing down and the wider market recovering, $ETH ETFs could positively impact $ETH's price in the coming weeks.
However, a few old whales are still shedding their holdings and may cause short-term bearish pressure. According to Lookonchain's data, an Ethereum whale deposited 5,000 $ETH worth $13.2 million to the OKX exchange in the past few hours. The whale has been depositing $ETH to OKX since July, potentially selling 48,500 $ETH worth $154 million.
The whale received 1 million $ETH at $0.31 during Ethereum's ICO and currently holds 303.5K $ETH across two wallets.
Meanwhile, Ethereum's 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio shows that all investors who bought $ETH within the last 30 days experienced an average loss of 9%. $ETH's Weighted Sentiment is also down at -0.2%, indicating a slight negative or low sentiment toward the top altcoin. These on-chain metrics show that $ETH may still be in the buy zone in case of a rally.
$ETH MVRV & Weighted Sentiment" src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/a21/a21c14e8aaf093341d3b1afbada7b09709250a80.png" size="3840x1300">
$ETH MVRV & Weighted Sentiment
$ETH technical analysis: Ethereum has potential for 20% rally but faces key trendline hurdle
Ethereum is trading around $2,660 on Monday, up over 1% on the day. In the past 24 hours, $ETH has seen $55.71 million in liquidations, with long and short liquidations accounting for $35.09 million and $20.62 million, respectively.
$ETH is attempting to break above the $3,723 resistance, a level it has rejected twice in the past week. This resistance level intersects with a trendline that suggests $ETH could decline to a swing low around the $2,020 price. As the chart below reveals, $ETH has posted similar moves from August 2022 to November 2022 and July 2023 to October 2023.
$ETH/$USDT Daily chart" src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/e39/e39520f18af941ed054afb6c4f1cb16b933f002c.png" size="1281x571">
$ETH/$USDT Daily chart
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 and crossing above its moving averages suggests $ETH is seeing increased bullish momentum. This is also evident in the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch), where the %K line crossed above the %D line again on Sunday. Such a move in the Stoch indicates that the momentum is shifting in favor of buyers.
The potential bullish momentum is strengthened by $ETH's futures open interest (OI) increasing over 4% to nearly $11 billion and the $ETH Long/Short Ratio rising to 1.01. Rising OI when the price attempts a comeback often indicates potential for further growth.
As a result, $ETH could rally over 20% to around $3,368, where it faces a key resistance. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could also act as a resistance after $ETH posted a "Death Cross" on Thursday when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 100-day SMA.
The thesis will be invalidated if $ETH falls below the support level around $2,020, which also intersects with a key trendline.