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Ethereum is expected to experience high volatility this week, as spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF trading will begin on Tuesday. Market participants in the derivatives sector are preparing for potential selling pressure on launch day, followed by a gradual recovery.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange confirmed on Friday that several spot Ethereum ETFs from fund managers including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton and VanEck will begin trading on Tuesday, July 23. This announcement led to an increase in ETH options open interest, reflecting market expectation of an upcoming increase in price volatility for ETH. For example, the implied volatility of ETH options increased from 56% to 70% last week, according to data from Deribit.
BRN analyst Valentin Fournier predicts a drop in ETH price immediately following the start of spot Ethereum ETF trading. “Ethereum may face significant selling pressure at the beginning of the week that the ETF launch may not immediately prevent,” Fournier said.
But Fournier also predicts a longer-term recovery. He predicts that ETH price will drop to levels between $2,800 and $3,100 before rebounding towards $4,000. This recovery is expected to occur with the gradual impact of increased demand for spot ETFs.
*This is not investment advice.