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According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) recent interaction with potential spot Ethereum ETF applicant companies represents a significant shift in the outlook for potential approvals.
Next steps include approving forms 19b-4 and S-1 registration statements. Balchunas noted that due to the unique nature of the issue, this may take longer than usual. Once these are met, trading can begin.
“Overcoming the possible approval issue is the most important thing. Now it's all about logistics and legal documents,” he said.
Unlike spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, where the SEC meets with prospective issuers for weeks before finalizing the forms, the SEC began meeting with prospective Ethereum ETF issuers just days before the May 23 deadline for a final decision on the VanEck Ethereum ETF.
Despite the time constraint, Balchunas believes the process should be made easier. “They just completed the Bitcoin process a few months ago, so there will be a lot of copy and paste,” he said.
In the Bitcoin ETF process, issuers like BlackRock have launched spot Bitcoin ETFs with $10 million in seed capital, with billions of dollars of capital reportedly lined up. But Balchunas doubts that will be the case with Ethereum ETFs, in part because the SEC stepped in at the last minute.
“Everyone was pretty optimistic during the Bitcoin ETF process, so they had time. That's not the case right now,” he said. However, he did not rule out that BlackRock could do something quickly.
Balchunas also reiterated his view that Ethereum ETFs may see lower demand than Bitcoin ETFs. “The people who are really interested in this probably already have ETH. And for the casual tourist types, a lot of them are probably happy with Bitcoin. It's what they know best,” he said.
The analyst estimates that Ethereum ETFs could receive 10 to 15% of the assets that their Bitcoin counterparts receive, which would bring the ETFs to around $5 billion to $8 billion. “For any normal launch in the first few years, that's pretty good,” he concluded.
*This is not investment advice.