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As the classic weather forecast goes in the Northern Hemisphere, April showers bring May flowers. Will it hold up for crypto exchange markets in Q2 of 2024 after a sharp correction this April?
And if the market does recover in May, whose flowers will bloom brightest?
Bitcoin price‘s four-year bull run seems imminent, but will Binance, Solana, Cardano, or Aptos lead DeFi gains in the second quarter, or will the king smart contract coin, ETH, fly furthest up the chart?
Ethereum prices are up by almost 100% for the trailing 12-month period. Ether is down over 4% from 30 days ago. Meanwhile, ETH prices are up more than 7% over the five days ending Monday.
Here are four reasons in Q2 of 2024 to jump on the fear of missing out (FOMO) bandwagon for Ethereum and four reasons to bail out in fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).
FOMO:
Here’s what Ethereum has going for it after the Bitcoin halving at block height 840,000.
1. Ethereum Price $4,000 Is New Goal
Ethereum crushed $3,000 in February, then notched $4,000 on crypto exchanges in March for the first time in 2 years. After a substantial retreat, the asset indecisively tested $3,200 on Monday. If bulls defeat resistance at this level, the next key resistance will be near $3,700 where the market previously peaked throughout the month of April.
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap hit its historic all-time high of $4,808.74 on Friday, Nov. 12, 2021. After blowing past $3,000 last quarter, Ethereum bulls are focused on $4,000 next and potentially $4,800 sometime in 2024.
As markets closed out Q1, a post on the 2.3 million strong EthTrader subreddit predicted: “ETH has plenty of growth potential and will eventually return to $4k, likely bypassing its ATH as well.”
Furthermore, a recent report by USA Today notes: “Artificial intelligence-based websites, crypto traders, and industry analysts have 2025 ethereum price targets ranging from around $6,000 to above $21,000. Industry insiders project the crypto will reach nearly $7,500 by 2025.”
2. Shiba Inu Is Becoming An L2
One way cryptocurrency investors evaluate the health of a Layer-1 blockchain is by gathering and analyzing metrics of activity and success among its most popular Layer-2 decentralized applications (DApps).
A robust ecosystem with an active user base, high transaction volumes, and sustained growth trends tends to be a safer investment that delivers better returns. As a leading indicator of Ethereum prices in Q2, the success of the meme coin Shiba Inu – an ERC20 token – is a promising look at ETH’s future.
Initially, Shiba Inu started as a joke cryptocurrency like Dogecoin in Aug. 2020. But unlike DOGE, a proof-of-work (mineable) Layer-1 cryptocurrency, SHIB has become a full-fledged Layer-2 Ethereum-scaling ecosystem, with decentralized apps powered by final settlement on the latter’s base chain.
An important Shiba Inu metric exploded by 1,000% in April, and a major SHIB developer made an important announcement earlier in the month. As a result, many cryptocurrency investors are terrified of missing out on Ethereum gains in 2024.
3. L2 – Polygon, Arbitrum, and Optimism Scaling
In addition to Shiba Inu, Ethereum’s other Layer-2 scaling chains, like Polygon (MATIC), Arbitrum (ARB), and Optimism (OPT), are showing massive signs of strength in Q2. Perusing their X.com timelines, Monday reveals a flurry of new activity and development on these L2s, a bullish sign for Ethereum prices.
Games are leaving Polygon? Check again.
Gaming on Polygon amassed 700k+ Unique users in the past 7 days and 1.3m+ Unique users in 30 days.
Total users have grown by 1113% and txns by 1290% over the past 7 days.
GameOn 2.0 will take it to the next level ($30k rewards 😮)
1/🧵 pic.twitter.com/3xH6M1YYAW
— sanjay.moca (@FlyeKitesJay) April 19, 2024
Polygon Labs recently retweeted a post by a gaming content creator that reported, “Games are leaving Polygon? Check again. Gaming on Polygon amassed 700k+ Unique users in the past 7 days and 1.3m+ Unique users in 30 days. Total users have grown by 1113% and txns by 1290% over the past 7 days.”
Meanwhile, Arbitrum announced, “Fraud Proofs took us to a Stage 1 rollup. Today, with BOLD, we’re on our way to becoming a Stage 2 rollup! BOLD, permissionless validation on Arbitrum, is now live on testnet!”
On Monday, OP Labs posted, “Yes, interoperability between Superchain L2s. Optimistically coming soon,” in response to the news that developers behind the Celo blockchain have selected Optimism to build Celo’s Layer-2 on Ethereum. Moreover, AltLayer announced on Monday the launch of a new Layer-3 powered by Arbitrum and Eigenlayer.
AltLayer has deployed the testnet for @DODO_Chain, an Omni-trading Layer 3 powered by @eigenlayer & @arbitrum.
From Multichain to Omnichain, enjoy a seamless new era of trading with DODOChain’s interconnected liquidity layer! https://t.co/XaKpPJiPB1
— AltLayer (@alt_layer) April 22, 2024
4. Ether TVS On Sharp Uptrend
Total value locked (TVL) or “total value staked” is the measure of the amount and market value of the tokens locked or staked at any given time for a proof-of-stake cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin found a way to prevent double-spending and solve the Byzantine General’s Problem for a decentralized network by using electricity-intensive proof-of-work hash problems and a blockchain of validated hashes.
Smart contract cryptocurrencies solve the same problem by allowing users to stake tokens to participate as a node. The higher the TVL, the better it is for the token’s market value with all other things being equal.
Ethereum price may be worth FOMO’ing over based on its TVL metrics. With a week left to go in April, Ethereum TVL is above $53 billion. Meanwhile, its nearest competitor, Tron (TRON), has $8.6 billion in TVL, according to CoinGecko data. Cryptoquant data show a very steady uptrend in Ethereum TVL from April 2021 through March this year.
$29B of that TVL is staked with Liquid Staking using Lido, $14B is re-staked with EigenLayer, and $9B is staked through lending platform AAVE, according to the latest data from DefiLlama.
FUD:
Here are some headwinds working against Ethereum prices in Q2 2024.
5. Prediction: Ethereum ETF Delay At SEC
Many investors are feeling FOMO over the Ethereum price in Q2, but the outlook for the asset is not all rosy. One ongoing threat to Ethereum prices is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The danger the SEC poses to Ether prices is twofold: 1.) The commission continues to angle to get ETH tokens classified as securities. 2.) In addition, the regulator may delay approving an Ethereum ETF for Wall Street investors.
That’s a big deal because VanEck thinks Ethereum ETFs could outpace Bitcoin funds once approved. Bitcoin ETF issuers like Fidelity and VanEck have been waiting for an Ether ETF approval but say the SEC will not greenlight one by a late May deadline.
6. SEC Investigating Ethereum As Security
Meanwhile, the SEC is “waging an energetic legal campaign to classify Ethereum, the second-most popular cryptocurrency, as a security,” according to a Mar. 20 report in Fortune Crypto.
The commission has issued subpoenas to a number of companies to probe their dealings with the Ethereum Foundation, kicking up speculation that the SEC will sue to get ETH tokens labeled a security.
Developments related to this possibility represent an ongoing risk to long positions in Ethereum and a headwind for the asset’s prices. Should the SEC ultimately succeed in its campaign, Ether will likely have to overcome serious FUD.
7. Competition From Bitcoin and Other PoW Chains
DeFi is one of the fastest-growing industry sectors in the world by far in 2024, but competition from proof-of-work blockchains like Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum Classic (ETC), and Stacks (STX) is another reason to be uncertain about investing in Ethereum.
Smart contract meme coins like Bonk Inu, Shiba Inu, Pepe, Floki Inu, and dogwifhat led cryptocurrency gains for the year in 2023. They may do so again in 2024, leading to new peaks.
But with the Bitcoin halving in the rearview mirror, the focus in 2024 could shift to supply and scarcity, with the benefit going to deflationary, PoW blockchains.
8. Competition From Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche
Of course, there’s also competition from other DeFi blockchains like Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche for Ethereum investors to FUD over. Coin Bureau altcoin analyst Guy Turner recently told his two million YouTube subscribers that he expects a 100% rally soon to $300 for Solana.
Meanwhile, there may be a mega-move ahead in the cards for Cardano (ADA) based on the technical signals on the crypto’s chart. Last month, Avalanche (AVAX) achieved $329 million in daily transaction volume, levels the market hasn’t seen since May 2022.