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JPMorgan recently published a research report stating that spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs have no more than a 50% chance of being approved in May. This comes to light in light of the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) ongoing investigations into companies associated with the Ethereum Foundation.
The bank maintained its stance, first expressed in January, that these products were unlikely to be approved next month. The SEC, which approved spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs earlier this year, is expected to make final decisions on some Ethereum ETF applications by May 23. The approval of BTC ETFs led to speculation that ETH, the token of the Ethereum blockchain, could follow suit.
However, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou predicted that if the SEC does not approve spot ETH ETFs in May, it could lead to litigation against the SEC. The bank believes the SEC will lose this case, similar to the outcome of the Grayscale and Ripple cases, and will eventually approve spot ETH ETFs, but not in May.
One of the reasons given for the SEC's potential loss in any case is the decreasing centralization of staking in Ethereum. This trend raises the possibility that ETH will avoid being designated as a security. Last week, JPMorgan noted in a report that the share of ETH staked by Lido continues to decline, which should ease concerns about concentration on the network.
*This is not investment advice.