We Could Be Witnessing Bitcoin’s ‘Last Cycle’ With No Top In Sight, According To BTC Analyst Willy Woo

Key takeaways:

• Prominent on-chain analyst Willy Woo thinks Bitcoin’s price is no longer tethered to the four-year halving cycle
• Woo believes complex supply and demand dynamics have become the dominant factor guiding BTC’s price movements and added that “The Last Cycle” has no top
• The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in midst of an accumulation phase

Prominent on-chain analyst says Bitcoin’s price no longer moves in harmony with the four-year halving cycle

Throughout its relatively short 13 year history, Bitcoin has followed a somewhat predictable pattern. For the majority of its existence, Bitcoin had usually reached a local price top roughly a year before each laving, or in other words, somewhere in the middle between two halving events. 

A historical correlation between BTC halvings and market peaks. Image source: TradingView (@weatherbeats)

However, post-2021 halving, Bitcoin might have started heeding to different market principles than in the past. In October 2021, a well-regarded blockchain analyst Willy Woo first proposed the idea that Bitcoin’s price correlation with halving events might have come to an end. 

At the time, Woo wrote that Bitcoin no longer seems to be bound by a relatively predictable pattern of supply and demand governed by the 4-year halvening cycle. Instead, Woo proposed that Bitcoin has evolved to become a “complex ecosystem” of supply and demand dynamics operating outside of the somewhat simplistic scope of predictable halving cycles. Woo also hypothesized that the so-called “Last Cycle” had no conventional market top.

"The Last Cycle"

What will be this bull cycle top? IMO there is no top.

PAST: *predictable walk* of demand/supply governed by a simple 4yr halvening.

NOW: *unpredictable walk* of demand/supply from a complex ecosystem until we hit saturation. pic.twitter.com/4yyKKViLCg

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 2, 2021

Earlier this week, the prominent Bitcoin analyst revisited his idea of “The Last Cycle”. He argued that the fast succession of three short bull and bear markets in just as many years gives credence to the thesis that the four-year halving pattern has become obsolete. "No more 4 year cycles," proclaimed Woo.

We're likely seeing the first signs of "The Last Cycle" thesis playing out. 3 relatively short bull and bear markets have transpired since the 2019 bottom already.

i.e. No more 4 year cycles. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 20, 2022

Woo also noted that Bitcoin is currently in the phase of accumulation, which has historically correlated with Bitcoin reaching its local price peaks. This claim is further supported by blockchain research firm Glassnode, which recently reported that “long-term holders seem to keep accumulating bitcoin” and that the exchange outflows have surged.

Bitcoin Poised for a Breakout as Exchange Outflows Surge and the Fed Caps Rate Hikes

Bitcoin has been trending upwards since early in March and reached its highest price point in three weeks on Tuesday. In addition, general market sentiment and macroeconomic situation point to the fact that the world’s oldest crytpo might soon be heading close to its 2022 peak. According to our automated logarithmic Bitcoin price prediction, the coin’s price could hit $44,600 later this week.