Coinbase Institutional says Fed rate expectations, not the Binance hack, sank Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recent slide has an obvious suspect: the Binance hack. Coinbase Institutional says the evidence points somewhere else.

According to Coinbase Institutional, shifting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, not the breach at the world’s best-known exchange, drove Bitcoin’s latest decline.

The inflation print that moved the market

The pivot point was the Consumer Price Index report released on November 10. Headline consumer prices climbed 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3%.

Those numbers ran hot enough to reshape bets on what the Fed does next. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase in December climbed above 90% following the report.

The CME FedWatch tool showed roughly an 88% to 92% probability of that quarter-point hike. Odds of a larger move stayed substantially lower.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s commentary added to the adjustment, as futures markets digested both the data and the policy signals.

How the selloff unfolded

Bitcoin dropped below $70,000 after the CPI release, falling to levels last seen in mid-August. By November 13, it was trading in a range of roughly $67,770 to $68,500.

Leverage made the move uglier. Liquidations of leveraged long positions totaled around $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion during the November 13 decline, with overall liquidation levels reported as surpassing $1.6 billion.

Institutional money was heading for the exits too. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.44 billion to $1.88 billion in net outflows in early November, adding steady selling pressure on top of the leverage flush.

Where the Binance hack fits

None of this makes the Binance breach a minor event. The October 29 hack drained approximately $6.3 billion in assets, including 18,270 BTC.

The incident did have brief price implications. But in Coinbase Institutional’s reading, its effect faded, and the broader macro backdrop did the heavier lifting in Bitcoin’s downturn.

Coinbase Institutional’s analysis lines up with a growing view that Bitcoin now trades more on interest rates, inflation, and dollar strength than on isolated incidents within the industry.

What this means for investors

The ETF outflows deserve close attention. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows in the range of $1.44 billion to $1.88 billion in early November, showing that this investor base also responds to rising rates and a stronger dollar.

The liquidation figures carry their own warning. Heavy leverage amplifies every macro surprise, turning a modest repricing into a sharp drop.

The key variables to monitor are clear enough: the next inflation readings, the Fed’s December decision, ETF flow trends, and how much leverage rebuilds in derivatives markets. If Coinbase Institutional is right, those factors will say more about Bitcoin’s next move than any single exchange incident.