Core PPI, which strips out the more volatile categories, landed exactly where forecasters put it. It rose 0.3% on the month and 5.0% from a year earlier.
So the beat was narrow. A tenth of a percentage point on the monthly and annual headline numbers is not exactly a dramatic shift in the inflation story.
A rough week, then a reprieve
The PPI release came on the heels of a consumer price index report that went the other way. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% forecasters had pencilled in.
That hotter consumer reading weighed on Bitcoin earlier in the week. The producer data offered a partial counterweight. It eased pressure on the idea that the Fed needs to move aggressively at its December decision.
Following the PPI release, odds of a larger 50 basis-point increase in December came down. A 25 basis-point hike remains priced in.
Inflation is still elevated
The 6.5% annual increase in producer prices marks the highest level in almost four years. What the October print did provide was a slowdown from the prior month’s sharper rise.
Why Bitcoin and gold moved together
Bitcoin’s move above $70,000 was its first break of that threshold in recent trading sessions. Gold holding above $3,900 per ounce suggests demand for the metal as an inflation hedge remains firm. With producer inflation running at its highest annual pace in almost four years, that demand is not hard to explain.
What this means for investors
The softer PPI points to a somewhat more dovish near-term outlook for Fed policy. A 25 basis-point hike is still the market’s base case, and annual producer inflation at 6.5% gives policymakers little room to relax.
Consumer prices came in hot while producer prices came in slightly cool. Producer costs often feed into consumer prices over time, so a softer PPI could hint at some easing ahead, though one month of data is a thin basis for that conclusion.