coindesk.com
A bitcoin $BTC$69,051.97 momentum gauge is turning red again, and a repeat of its historical pattern could send the price of the largest cryptocurrency back below $60,000, a level not seen since July.
A turn into negative territory in the gauge known as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram signals a bearish shift in momentum, and this week’s bar has dipped below zero. The signal would be confirmed if the bar remains negative at Sunday’s weekly close.
The movement has already caught the eye of some analysts and crypto social media users, who are worried about a deeper drop.
“Bitcoin is headed lower. The technical indicators are flashing clear red signals. Weekly MACD rolling over with Bear Cross (Bearish),” Josh Taylor, founder and lead contributor of analytics firm 7th Key Financial, said on X.
Several other observers on X noted the bearish MACD signal, cautioning against expecting a quick bottom and bullish turn higher in $BTC.
The question is how deep the drop could go, and in particular, whether prices could fall to bitcoin’s 2026 low of around $57,700. That’s a drop of another 16% from current levels.
History suggests that is possible.
Since November 2012, the indicator has turned bearish 24 times. In 13 of them, roughly half, bitcoin fell at least 16% from the price at the time the signal was confirmed, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. These selloffs happened before the MACD turned bullish again.
Historically, the slides were often fast. Five of the 13 reached the 16% mark within a week of the signal, 10 within four weeks, and the median was three weeks. In November 2018, bitcoin slumped 38% within a single week. In February 2014, it lost 35% within a week. The slowest was the August 2025 signal, which took 12 weeks to get there.
The slides could be even deeper. In the worst cases, including the signals in August 2014 and April 2022, bitcoin lost more than half its value. But they might be more controlled. On 11 occasions, the price fell less than 16%, including the most recent one, in June. After that signal, bitcoin fell just 3% to $57,700 before rebounding.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results, and no indicator is fully reliable on a standalone basis.
Still, the latest signal is appearing at a time when institutions are pulling out of spot ETFs and a strong U.S. dollar is creating a headwind for risk assets. Stay alert!
