Critical Warning About Bitcoin from Benjamin Cowen: Losing This Level Could Trigger a Sharp Drop

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen warned investors against a new wave of decline, stating that recent attempts at recovery in Bitcoin ($BTC) price may not be the beginning of a lasting uptrend. Commenting during a period when Bitcoin was trading just below $76,000, Cowen argued that a loss of the $74,900 level, in particular, could quickly pull the price down by 10 to 11 percent.

In a post published on his YouTube channel, Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s price movements in 2026 show significant similarities to past bear markets. According to the analyst, there is not yet enough evidence to show that the market has definitively formed a bottom.

$74,900 Level Could Be Decisive for Bitcoin

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin has exhibited similar price behavior in recent weeks. According to the analyst, $BTC shows an increase in the early days of the week but gives back its gains in the following days. The fact that the price fell back below $76,000 after rising to $81,000 supports this view.

Cowen noted that the $74,900 level is particularly important in the short term, acknowledging that Bitcoin could recover after a brief dip below this region. However, he believes that a permanent loss of this level could lead to more intense selling pressure.

Cowen said that the approximately $72,000-$73,000 range, where the 200-day moving average is located, could act as intermediate support, but past price movements point to the possibility of a rapid pullback to lower levels.

The analyst predicts that if Bitcoin loses the $74,900 support level, it could make a rapid move towards the lows of the previously tested trading range, which could mean an additional drop of approximately 10 to 11 percent.

Cowen: 2026 Reminds Me of Previous Month’s Markets

Cowen, who also provided assessments of Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles, particularly highlighted price movements in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin typically forms significant lows in the first quarter, summer months, and last quarter of the year. Cowen believes that similar lows were seen in February and summer of 2026, and that a low in the last quarter of the year is now on the agenda.

However, the analyst noted that it is impossible to know exactly when Bitcoin will form its bottom. He stated that this move could occur in November or December, or it could even extend into January 2027.

Another factor Cowen highlighted was trading volume. The analyst argued that while previous bear markets saw sharp sell-offs with high trading volumes in their final stages, a similar scale of capitulation has yet to occur in 2026.

Therefore, he approaches optimistic assessments that Bitcoin has passed its bottom with caution.

A Significant Difference Between the 2019 and 2023 Rises

Cowen also disagreed with analysts who considered Bitcoin’s move above the 50-week moving average as a strong bullish signal.

Cowen noted that after exceeding that average in 2019 and 2023, Bitcoin experienced short-term increases of around 35 to 50 percent, while the current movement has been limited to approximately 10 percent.

He also said that in past rallies, it took Bitcoin a long time to retest the 50-week moving average, but in the current situation, it is returning to this level much faster.

According to Cowen, one of the key differences is that the 50-week moving average continues its downward trend, unlike in past examples.

While acknowledging that Bitcoin’s decline to the 200-week moving average could be interpreted as a potential bottom signal, the analyst noted that this level has been tested several times in past cycles and that the price has occasionally fallen below it.

FED Policy and Nasdaq Decline Could Put Pressure on Bitcoin

Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s weakness cannot be explained solely by technical indicators, and that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy and developments in global markets must also be taken into account.

The analyst noted similarities between the current market and the price movements seen in Bitcoin following interest rate hikes in 2018 and 2022. Cowen stated that he expects another interest rate hike in December, but believes the current tightening process will not last as long as it did in 2022.

The analyst argued that inflationary pressures, particularly those stemming from energy prices and tariffs, are limiting the Fed’s room for maneuver, and also considered the decline in the Nasdaq index a negative development for Bitcoin.

Cowen stated that there are striking similarities between the Nasdaq’s performance in 2026 and the correction in 2018. Pointing to the rise in credit risk premiums, the analyst warned that risk aversion in financial markets could strengthen.

On the other hand, Cowen stated that he does not believe the US economy is in recession based on current data, and therefore a decline as long and deep as in 2022 is not his baseline scenario.

Stablecoin Data Also Caught Cowen’s Attention

The analyst said that when evaluating Bitcoin’s future price movements, he also tracks the total value of the stablecoin market.

According to Cowen, the fact that stablecoin market capitalization has fallen below the lows it reached in February and July is one of the indicators supporting the current weakness in the cryptocurrency market.

He also noted that the chart comparing Bitcoin price to USDT market dominance does not yet show a pattern similar to the sustained recoveries seen in the past.

Cowen believes that all these indicators strengthen the possibility of Bitcoin forming a new low in the last quarter of the year.

However, the analyst added that the bearish scenario is not certain and Bitcoin could find support at critical levels and resume its upward trend.

*This is not investment advice.