Why Bitcoin’s $707 billion loss overhang means its recovery will take months
ambcrypto.com
03 November 2026 13:01, UTC
Losses have been dominating the world’s leading crypto’s market cap lately. In fact, roughly $707 billion invested in Bitcoin [$BTC] were at a loss at press time, compared to only $380 billion in profits.
Source: Darkfost on X
The metric was aggregated daily and gave an average of the capital currently held in loss or profit on Bitcoin spot positions.
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According to the analyst Darkfost, it could take a long while for Bitcoin to battle past the capital in loss. Time is an important factor when coming out of a bear market. The market will take several months to put most of the capital back in profit.
It is at that stage that a market expansion, or a bull run, can gather steam and get going.
Bitcoin sentiment under assault
On 2nd November, AMBCrypto reported that Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin halted transfers in response to a security incident that drained $40 million. It came just days after the Binance heist.
The exchange has since resumed withdrawals, and deposits remained unaffected. The sentiment is still highly pessimistic though. Especially since $BTC’s price hit a low of $76,541 on Monday, 2nd November.
The $75K-demand zone, which coincided with the short-term holder cost basis level, has also emerged as a key support level that swing traders and long-term investors will be watching.
Active Bitcoin addresses decline considerably
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. also observed that the 30-day average of active addresses was at 629k, 43% below December’s 2024 peak of 1.10 million addresses.
Similarly, in 2018, the active addresses fell by 50% from 1.10 million to 547K over a period of three months. This, compared to the almost two-year activity contraction from 2024.
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights
While active addresses fell, the 30-day average of Bitcoin daily transfer volume was down only 5.4% compared to December 2024, from 865K to 819K $BTC.
While activity has shrunk considerably, the coins moved on-chain remained comparable.
Final Summary
Around twice as much of the capital invested in Bitcoin was at a loss ($707 billion), than in profit ($380 billion).
Active addresses shrunk considerably, but $BTC moved on-chain remained is now comparable to December 2024’s levels.