Bitcoin long-term resistance in focus as analysis sees selling risk above $85K

Bitcoin ($BTC) faces resistance between $84,000 and $85,000 as analysis points to coins largely linked to a single large holder.

Key points:

• Bitcoin faces resistance around $85,000, where 4.3% of the $BTC supply last moved onchain.
• Glassnode analysis links the onchain cost basis of 864,520 $BTC to Bitcoin’s difficulty sustaining daily closes above $85,000.
• Long-term holders own a combined four million coins with a cost basis between $85,000 and $118,000.

Glassnode ties $85K resistance to large-holder cost basis

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics platform Glassnode flagged another resistance hurdle for $BTC price action in the mid-$80,000 range.

On Nov. 22, 2025, a significant portion of the total $BTC supply moved onchain. At the time of the transactions, $BTC/USD traded between $84,000 and $85,000. The coins that last moved at that price make up 4.3% of the total $BTC supply, or 864,520 $BTC.

The analysis links the majority of this Bitcoin to a single large holder, who was moving funds among multiple wallets. Although self-transfers generally do not affect price, Glassnode noted that Bitcoin has respected the $84,000-$85,000 range as both support and resistance over the past 11 months.

“It held as support in December, when price bounced off it on December 1 and December 18. It gave way on January 31, when a push back up to $84K failed, and Bitcoin fell about 20% over the following days,” Glassnode commented.

In May, September and October, $BTC price upside momentum faded near the same level, with a high of $87,400. Bitcoin has recorded only five daily closes above the band, never more than three in a row.

“A run of daily closes above $85K would turn the band back into support,” Glassnode added.

$BTC/USD chart with supply onchain cost-basis data. Source: Glassnode

Long-term holders pose sell-side risk above $85,000

The $85,000 mark holds significance for a larger portion of the Bitcoin investor base.

Related: Bitcoin price analysis sees ‘strong rally’ as old coins become dormant

Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s long-term holders (LTH) — entities holding a given amount of $BTC without selling for at least 155 days — own around 4 million coins that last moved onchain between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025.

“More than half of all their coins were bought above today’s price. If price recovers toward $85K, many of these holders may sell to get their money back,” it said of the LTH cohort as a whole.

Bitcoin supply data by investor cohort. Source: Glassnode

The LTH spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which compares the extent to which LTH coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price compared to their previous transaction, currently sits at 0.99. Values below 1 imply that LTH supply is moving at an aggregate loss.