Is the Uptober Tradition Breaking in Bitcoin? Analyst Points to US Midterm Elections, Shares Critical Data!

October is considered a historic bullish month for the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. However, this is at risk of failing for two consecutive years. According to data, the “Uptober” trend, which saw Bitcoin rise in October from 2019 to 2024, is at risk of failing for a second year in a row.

Although October is not yet over, if the monthly candlestick chart closes at current levels, it will show a negative monthly candlestick pattern with a decrease of approximately 2.4%. This would make October red for $BTC, just like last year. Last year, $BTC also closed October with a red candlestick, showing a negative return of 3.9%.

With October drawing to a close, a significant event is approaching that is seen as price-related for Bitcoin. The US midterm elections on November 3rd are considered a crucial event for $BTC price movements, and one analyst has examined historical data to determine its impact.

Are the US Midterm Elections a Bullish Signal for Bitcoin?

Market analyst Omkar Godbole noted that historical data shows Bitcoin has risen by an average of 53.7% in the 12-month period following the US midterm elections. However, historical returns do not guarantee that Bitcoin will perform similarly next year.

According to the analyst, while these figures are noteworthy ahead of the November 3rd elections, the rise may be driven more by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle than by political developments.

At this point, the analyst notes that Bitcoin’s post-election performance may not be directly explainable by political developments. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s halving mechanism, which occurs approximately every four years, has played a significant role in past price cycles.

In this context, after each of the four halvings to date, Bitcoin has risen sharply, peaked 12 to 18 months later, and then entered a bear market. These bear markets occurred in midterm election years – 2014, 2018, 2022, and now 2026. Therefore, the recovery following the midterm elections may be the beginning of a new cycle rather than simply the effect of politics.

*This is not investment advice.