Is Bitcoin’s Historic Cycle Coming to an End? A Critical Warning from Alphractal for the Next 20 Days

Cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal has stated that Bitcoin (BTC) may be about to break one of the most stable historical patterns observed in past bear markets. According to the company’s data, while Bitcoin reached its bottom in approximately one year during previous major downturns, a different picture may be emerging in the current cycle.

Alphractal compared the time it took for Bitcoin to reach its peak and trough in past bear markets. According to their analysis, it took 406 days in the 2013-2015 cycle, 363 days in the 2017-2018 cycle, and 376 days in the 2021-2022 cycle.

In the current 2025-2026 cycle, 386 days have passed since Bitcoin’s peak. Analysts have noted that this situation brings two different scenarios to the forefront.

“Bitcoin May Have Already Hit Its Bottom”

According to Alphractal’s analysis, the lowest price recorded in the current cycle occurred on June 30, 2026, just 267 days after the peak.

If this level is the ultimate bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market, it could mark one of the most remarkable cyclical shifts in cryptocurrency history.

Because Bitcoin needed at least 363 days to reach its bottom in the previous three major bear markets. In the current cycle, however, this period has shortened to 267 days, meaning the historical pattern has changed significantly.

However, Alphractal added that the possibility of Bitcoin forming a new low has not yet been completely ruled out.

The company noted that in past cycles, the time from peak to trough varied between 363 and 406 days, and that the current cycle is on day 386.

Therefore, a drop in Bitcoin to a new low within the next 20 days or so could still be consistent with historical cycle durations.

Alphractal stated that, due to the market recovery, many investors are increasingly seeing the possibility of a new low as less likely, but such a scenario should not be ruled out simply because time has passed.

According to the analysis firm, the fundamental question for Bitcoin is whether a lasting shift in the timing of bear markets has begun.

*This is not investment advice.